Lights ‘will stay on’ during UK’s 2015-20 electricity cr ...

Lights ‘will stay on’ during UK’s 2015-20 electricity crunch The economic slowdown means that Britain should be able to retire old coal, oil and nuclear power plants on schedule without risking black-outs between 2015 and 2020, according to new analysis by Bloomberg New Energy Finance published on its website. This suggests that weak power demand, improving energy efficiency and lifetime extensions for nuclear plants will mean the country is on track to keep the lights on through the critical years between 2015 and 2020. The new study finds that a combination of increased renewable energy capacity, along with already-planned additional gas-fired capacity, will provide most of the additional electricity that the UK needs through to 2030. In addition, the UK’s second ‘dash for gas’, which could see the addition of 15 GW of new capacity between 2010 and 2016, is likely to be the nation’s last. Renewable energy, nuclear power, energy efficiency and retrofits to existing plants should be able to meet all additional needs from 2020 onwards. Until now, the government and other market participants have expressed concern that Great Britain (the Northern Ireland power market is linked to that of the Irish Republic, not the mainland) will experience a shortage of power supply as 12 GW of coal and oil-fired plants close by 2016 due to environmental requirements. An additional 7 GW of nuclear is scheduled to close by the end of the decade. Bloomberg New Energy Finance says that the main factors reducing the need for new power plants in the UK are weak industrial demand and declines in domestic usage. The recession and European debt crisis have caused electricity consumption to fall significantly, by 9% from its 2005 peak. Power demand may not return to pre-recession levels within the next 20 years, as a full recovery in industrial production remains elusive and energy efficiency improvements are taking hold. Even if electric vehicles take off, their impact on electricity demand will be limited, according to Bloomberg’s analysis. The second factor helping to offset plant closures is the large amount of new capacity - around 30 GW - expected to be added between now and 2016. Around two-thirds of this will come from renewables, as large offshore wind projects come online and developers continue to build onshore wind and biomass.