Why the energy trilemma is not a zero-sum trade-off

I write at a time of continued geopolitical tension with global implications for us all. Recent events, like Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine before them, continue to affect Great Britain’s energy system.

Too often, people’s energy bills are driven by global price volatility and international instability. That has real consequences for communities managing the cost of living, businesses facing rising costs and consumers paying some of the highest electricity prices in Europe.

These pressures bring the energy trilemma into sharper focus: how we balance security of supply, affordability and sustainability for consumers. Right now, security and affordability are understandably front of mind.

But this is not a zero-sum trade-off. The path to a cleaner energy system in Great Britain is also the most credible path to a more secure and more affordable one.

Scaling up cleaner, homegrown power reduces our exposure to volatile fossil fuel markets. That strengthens security and improves affordability over time. Investing in networks and flexibility improves resilience while enabling more sustainable generation. Well-designed markets can also help ensure those benefits are passed on to consumers.

NESO was established as an independent body to help balance the trilemma in the interests of consumers. We operate today’s electricity system and help plan tomorrow’s, working with government, the regulator, industry and communities across Great Britain. Three priorities stand out.

The path to a cleaner energy system in Great Britain is also the most credible path to a more secure and more affordable one. 
 

Delivering at pace

The immediate priority is clear: deliver the transformation of our energy system at pace.

There is real progress to build on. Record offshore wind auction results. More grid infrastructure being built. New highs in renewable generation. A new zero carbon operation record earlier this year.

These are not just milestones. They are practical steps towards a system that is less exposed to shocks, more stable in price, and better for consumers.

Recent events confirm we are on the right path. Now we need to go further, faster, together. Every project delivered, and every reform completed, can be a step in the right direction for consumers.

Connections reform is central to this. The previous system was not fit for purpose. The new pipeline could unlock around £40 billion of investment each year, support large-scale electrification and help build the industries of the future — while reducing long-term exposure to global price shocks. 

Over half of the offers needed for 2030 have now been issued, and NESO continues to work at pace with customers. At the same time industry is progressing with building out the network we need to connect more clean power to the grid.

Reforming the energy market will also play a key role. Markets that better reflect how the system operates can respond more efficiently to changes in supply and demand. That improves resilience and reduces avoidable costs for consumers. We are working with government and Ofgem to shape Reformed National Pricing as part of this.

Faster, visible delivery — in step with industry — is the most direct way to demonstrate progress and help make tangible the benefits of the transition for consumers.

Data and AI: improving outcomes for consumers

A better energy system will depend not just on what we build, but how we operate it. 

Consumers are no longer passive users of energy, their choices now shape demand in real time. Responding effectively requires a system that is connected, adaptive and responsive by design. That means moving beyond siloed infrastructure to interoperable systems, where data can flow securely and consistently across organisations, to enable faster, smarter decisions.

Data is the foundation for this. Used well, and combined with AI and advanced analytics, it improves decisions across the system — from long-term planning through to real-time operation. It helps reduce inefficiencies, strengthen reliability and lower costs for consumers. 

It also supports a more flexible system. Digital twins, predictive maintenance and smarter network management help manage growing complexity while maintaining security of supply at the lowest possible cost. 

But the value of data and AI depends on coordination. Without common standards, we risk fragmentation, duplication and higher costs. Interoperability — technical, semantic and organisational — is essential to unlock the full benefits. 

At NESO, we recognise that leadership in this space is essential. We are exploring the role of a digital co-ordinator for Great Britain to provide clear accountability for how digital infrastructure supports the physical system. This includes setting standards for interoperability, enabling secure data sharing, and ensuring that AI can be deployed safely, ethically and at scale. Alongside this, we will publish an initial shared digital vision and architecture for the sector, developed with industry. 

Together, these steps will help ensure digital capability delivers a system that is more resilient, more efficient and more affordable.
 

Planning the whole system

Energy can be complex. But the reasons for improving it are simple. Better places to live. Lower costs. More local jobs. And cleaner air for kids and grandkids to breathe.
 

Delivering the energy transition requires a broader approach to planning. It means looking across the whole system at how generation, networks, storage and demand interact, and recognising how decisions in one area affect another.

This is what we mean by a whole-system approach. As an independent body, NESO is well placed to take that view, bringing together evidence from across the energy system to support better-informed decisions.

Our strategic energy plans are central to that work. They will set out what we need, where we need it and by when, looking ahead to 2050 and beyond. They will align national, regional and network priorities, provide a clearer framework for investment, and give communities a stronger voice in shaping new infrastructure.

Done well, they will help keep the trilemma in balance over the long term. They will strengthen resilience while coordinating the growth of clean power with the infrastructure needed to support it.

These plans are being developed with stakeholders across the sector and we will consult on them over the next two years. Options for future energy generation and storage will be presented to the UK government in 2026, ahead of the first public consultation next year.

Staying the course

When I was younger, I trained with the Royal National Lifeboat Institution. It taught me that when conditions are uncertain, stay calm, trust the plan and keep moving forward. That is where we are today.

The energy trilemma continues to define Great Britain’s energy transition. By focusing on delivery, making better use of data and planning the system as a whole, we can keep security, affordability and sustainability in balance for consumers.

At NESO we recognise that the energy system serves people, businesses, society and the economy and we are committed to working with with all stakeholders across all regions and nations to ensure we have the right priorities and ultimately the best energy system for Great Britain.

The views and opinions expressed in this article are strictly those of the author only and are not necessarily given or endorsed by or on behalf of the Energy Institute.

• Further reading: ‘UK government rules out move to zonal pricing for electricity market’. Discover more about the debate around zonal pricing.
• ‘Can the UK rewire its energy future?’. At the recent All-Energy conference in Glasgow, Scotland, industry leaders warned that UK electricity network upgrades, supply chains and investment must keep pace with the transition if the country is to capture the benefits of growing renewable generation while shielding consumers from future energy shocks.