Its new study, published in partnership with Worley Consulting, argues that the world already has sufficient sustainable feedstock – biomass and power-to-liquid (PtL) sources included – to meet aviation’s long-term fuel demands, if the sector can scale up production.

The challenge lies not in acquiring raw inputs, but in rapidly expanding conversion technologies, refining infrastructure, and aligning investments and regulation to support industry growth.  

The air transport industry will need 500mn t/y of SAF to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050. In 2025, global SAF production is estimated at just 2mn t/y.  

With the right policies and investments, more than 300mn t/y of SAF from biomass feedstocks could be produced by mid-century, as well as around 200mn t/y from e-SAF (produced via PtL processes using renewable electricity and captured carbon), according to IATA. But to reach that scale, the sector must accelerate improvements in conversion efficiencies, broaden the feedstock supply chain and deploy new technologies at commercial scale across more regions.

Stressing the urgency of immediate action, Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, comments: ‘We now have unequivocal evidence that if SAF production is prioritised then feedstock availability is not a barrier in the industry’s path to decarbonisation. There is enough potential feedstock from sustainable sources to reach net zero carbon emissions in 2050. However, this will only be accomplished with a major acceleration of the SAF industry’s growth. We need shovels in the ground now.’  

Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist, adds that the report underscores opportunities for regional economic growth, job creation and enhanced energy security via SAF deployment – but only if governments champion the transition. ‘Policy certainty and cross-sector collaboration are essential to unlock the scale we need. The time to act is now – delays will only make the challenge harder,’ she says.  

The report calls upon leading economies – North America, Europe, Brazil, China, India and ASEAN – to act decisively, as they are key to unlocking global SAF production.  

‘The potential to turn SAF feedstock into real SAF production is in the hands of policymakers and business leaders, particularly in the energy sector. The conclusion of this study is an urgent call to action. We have just 25 years to turn this proven potential into reality,’ Walsh adds.

Eni advances SAF production with new biorefinery  

In other news, oil major Eni has received approval from the Italian Ministry of the Environment and Energy Security to convert selected units at the Sannazzaro de’ Burgondi refinery (pictured) in Pavia, Lombardy, into a biorefinery.  

The project involves converting the existing hydrocracker (HDC2) unit using the Honeywell proprietary Ecofining technology and constructing a pre-treatment unit for waste and residues, which are the main biogenic feedstocks Enilive uses to produce HVO biofuels.

Hydrogen will be sourced from existing facilities, while logistics and supporting infrastructure will be adapted to support the new operations. Traditional fuel production will continue alongside HVO diesel and SAF-biojet production, which is expected to begin in 2028.  

The biorefinery will process up to 550,000 t/y of feedstock, with flexibility to produce SAF-biojet and HVO diesel, operating alongside existing facilities to diversify output without reducing current refinery capacity.

The project underlines Eni’s commitment to increase biorefining capacity from 1.65mn t/y to over 3mn in 2028 and over 5mn in 2030, with the potential to produce up to 2mn t/y of SAF by 2030.