Aviation demand growth to 2050 'should be limited to 60%' Aviation policy should ...

Aviation demand growth to 2050 'should be limited to 60%' Aviation policy should be based on the assumption that demand growth between now and 2050 cannot exceed 60%, if the UK is to meet the Government’s target that aviation emissions in 2050 must not exceed 2005 levels. This is the main conclusion from a new report from the Committee on Climate Change (CCC), which concludes that fuel efficiency and operational improvements are likely to result in a 30% reduction in carbon emissions per seat-km flown, and that sustainable biofuels could account for 10% of aviation fuel use in 2050. Faster technological improvements are possible, but unless and until they are achieved, it is not prudent to assume that demand increases of more than 60% are compatible with the target, adds the CCC. Fuel efficiency improvements will arise from engine and airframe design innovation, and improved efficiency of air traffic movements and operations. The report finds that the use of biofuels in aviation is likely to be technically and economically viable. However, there are significant uncertainties over the level of sustainable biofuels available for use in aviation, for three reasons: the land area and water resource required, given increased food demand resulting from an increasing world population; technological uncertainty over the feasibility of biofuels production that does not require agricultural land (eg algae based); and other demands for biomass feedstocks to produce low-carbon energy (eg biofuels for HGVs, biomass power generation). It is therefore prudent to base current policy on the assumption that biofuels cannot account for more than 10% of the total aviation fuel mix in 2050, says the Committee. The report finds that on a ‘business as usual’ path, UK air passenger demand would grow by over 200% by 2050, reflecting the high income elasticity of demand. This would not be compatible with meeting the UK’s aviation or wider economy emissions targets.