World’s energy infrastructure enough to reach Paris Agreement emissions limit alone – IEA

Almost all future emissions permissible in the International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) Sustainable Development Scenario are essentially already locked in by the current energy infrastructure installed around the globe, according to the IEA’s latest World Energy Outlook (WEO), released in mid-November in London.

In the IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario – which is aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement on climate change – global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions peak around 2020 and then enter a sustained decline. But today’s energy system, and additions already being built, will account for almost all of the emissions permitted in this scenario, according to the IEA (see above graph).

‘We have reviewed all current and under-construction energy infrastructure around the world – such as power plants, refineries, cars and trucks, industrial boilers, and home heaters – and find they will account for some 95% of all emissions permitted under international climate targets in coming decades,’ said Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the IEA.

‘This means that if the world is serious about meeting its climate targets then, as of today, there needs to be a systematic preference for investment in sustainable energy technologies,’ he said. ‘But we also need to be much smarter about the way that we use our existing energy system. We can create some room for manoeuvre by expanding the use of carbon capture utilisation and storage, hydrogen, improving energy efficiency, and in some cases, retiring capital stock early. To be successful, this will need an unprecedented global political and economic effort.’

The IEA says that, in particular, coal-fired power plants, which account for one-third of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions today, represent more than a third of cumulative locked-in emissions to 2040. The vast majority of these are related to projects in Asia, where average coal plants are just 11 years-old – with decades left to operate – compared with a 40 year-old average in the US and Europe.

This year’s WEO also highlights the importance of flexibility in future energy markets to balance an increasing proportion of renewable energy. It says that policymakers need to make flexibility the cornerstone of future electricity systems to keep the lights on.

And it also puts a renewed emphasis on national governments to shape the energy future, indicating that they are responsible for 70% of investment in the energy system on a global level. At the press launch for the WEO Birol also said that IEA data now clearly shows that global energy-related emission levels in 2018 will mark a new record high.

Graph: Existing infrastructure will all but meet IEA Sustainable Development Scenario