UPDATED 1 Sept: The EI library in London is temporarily closed to the public, as a precautionary measure in light of the ongoing COVID-19 situation. The Knowledge Service will still be answering email queries via email , or via live chats during working hours (09:15-17:00 GMT). Our e-library is always open for members here: eLibrary , for full-text access to over 200 e-books and millions of articles. Thank you for your patience.
World could keep to 1.5ºC warming without relying on negative emissions
The world could reach the Paris Agreement’s most ambitious temperature aim of limiting global warming to a 1.5ºC rise on pre-industrial levels by implementing massive improvements in energy efficiency, according to new research from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and the University of East Anglia.
The research, published in Nature Energy, proposes a 1.5ºC scenario that doesn’t rely on negative emissions technologies being developed in the future. It says that temperatures could be limited by ‘unprecedented improvements’ in the energy efficiency of everyday activities. This means that technologies like biomass and carbon capture and storage (BECCS – see Energy World November 2017) may not be needed to stabilise global temperatures.
The study indicates that dramatic transformations in heating and cooling, appliance energy use and in transport efficiency could reach the target, while also helping to reach other UN Sustainable Development Goals.
Professor Arnulf Grubler, lead author of the study and IIASA Acting Programme Director, said: ‘Our analysis shows how a range of new social, behavioural and technological innovations, combined with strong policy support for energy efficiency and low carbon development can help reverse the historical trajectory of ever-rising energy demand.’
The scenario sees a ‘rapid downsizing’ of the global energy system between now and 2050, which makes the transition away from fossil fuels easier to accomplish. It finds that if total global energy demand is reduced by 40% by 2050, with a strong emphasis on electrification, renewable energy could meet the world’s energy needs without having to rely on carbon capture and storage technologies for burning fossil fuels or biomass.
Innovations the study incorporates include using shared and ‘on demand’ fleets of electric vehicles with increased occupancy rates, which could reduce global energy demand for transport by 60% by 2050.
And smart phones could also have a role to play. The paper says that using a single digital device, such as a phone, could help limit the growth in global energy demand from consumer goods by accessing services digitally.
The scenario sees strict standards for the energy performance of new buildings, and this combined with renovations of existing buildings could reduce the energy demand from heating and cooling by 75% by 2050.
