Understanding the views of members is a crucial exercise for any membership body, and it’s been fascinating this past week exploring the findings of the EI’s 2024 Energy Barometer survey, now in its tenth year of listening to and reporting on the views of those who work in and know about energy in the UK. 

This year’s report is all about power: not only the shift in political power that occurred in July as a new administration took office, but also the focus on power as the centrepiece of the UK’s low carbon transition. 

The report looks back over the decade since the survey was set up, and forward at the challenges facing new ministers, so it covers a lot of ground, but here are my top three takeaways.

Grid modernisation is the top concern
First is the emergence of grid modernisation as the UK’s most pressing energy-related challenge. For years, this issue took a back seat to other concerns, but this year it surged to the top spot as the most pressing issue that our members feel should be addressed. 

Decarbonising electricity in the UK is seen by more than 8 in 10 survey respondents as the biggest success story of the last decade. Emissions from power are down 65% since 2010, underscored by the symbolic exit of coal from the system earlier this year. And we’ve seen welcome steps from the new government, bringing back onshore wind, one of the cheapest renewable power generation technology, and running a successful auction for new low-carbon contracts in offshore wind and other technologies. 

But the existing transmission grid was designed for the needs of the last century, and if we’re to meet the government’s central mission of 100% clean power by 2030, a major overhaul is needed. 

It’s something I see in my own role in the offshore wind business as deputy chair of Ørsted. With the successful CFD (contract for difference) framework, there is appetite to invest in offshore wind and other renewable energy projects. However, establishing a grid infrastructure able to provide a timely connection of all these distributed and intermittent sources of renewable power to deliver reliable power to consumers and industry is an enormous challenge. 

Barometer respondents call for investment in increasing grid capacity, streamlining of grid permitting and consent processes, and reform of local planning rules and regulations.

The National Energy System Operator’s assessment is that clean power by 2030 will require us to build twice as much transmission infrastructure in the next five years as we did in the last decade. They say it’s “at the limit of what’s feasible” across a range of challenging areas, including supply chains, operations, digitalisation, distribution networks, consumer engagement and the broader economy.

This isn’t just a UK issue, of course. Electricity demand globally is expected to increase two and a half times by 2050, placing enormous strain on supply chains and infrastructure.

It’s a truism, but one our members are keen to emphasise: there’ll be no transition without transmission.

Confidence in reaching carbon targets is low
My second pick from the findings is broader than electricity, and it’s that confidence in the UK meeting its economy-wide, statutory carbon targets is worryingly low. 

The UK has done well so far to cut emissions by 53% on 1990 levels. But only 15% of Barometer respondents currently foresee us meeting or exceeding the 2035 goal that was recently reinforced by Keir Starmer at COP29, and just 4% are confident we’ll reach net zero by 2050. Clearly, a lot of the low hanging fruit for decarbonisation have been harvested and it is a sad fact that a considerable part of the historic reduction was due to the move to a more service, and less industrial-based economy, in the UK.  

The Barometer has found similar sentiment in previous years too, but this shouldn’t be mistaken as a lack of enthusiasm for net zero. In fact, I find quite the opposite in my engagement with the EI’s members, who are striving to bring about change. We admire the ambition of the government, but need to make sure the plans are both executable and affordable.

But the Barometer flags a concern that government policy across the board needs to be evidence-based, tapping into the wealth of knowledge amongst UK energy professionals. For example, energy efficiency is seen in the Barometer as a crucial tool for addressing all three aspects of the energy trilemma, but it is also cited as the area where expert advice has over many years been ignored. Alongside the deployment of clean power, respondents also call for a simultaneous mission around the electrification of our economy, in particular the infrastructure and incentives needed to accelerate the deployment of heat pumps and EVs. And much more besides, in harder-to-abate sectors of the economy that can’t be electrified.

More evidence and expertise, less politics  
The process of policymaking also needs to be up to the job. Which brings me to the third finding that caught my eye – that 70% of respondents believe energy policymaking over the past decade, since the survey was introduced, has fallen victim to competing political pressures. I often hear industry calling for stability in regulation, to underpin long term investment. If you invest in oil and gas, or onshore wind, or even in heat pumps the flip flopping of regulation in the UK does not inspire investor confidence.  

It’s of course the job of government to balance these pressures, but two-thirds of our respondents say the role of evidence and expertise needs strengthening, to ensure that decision-makers are equipped with the knowledge to craft well-informed, effective policy proposals.

This is not to downplay the efforts of the many dedicated and knowledgeable civil servants already working in the energy sector. It would also be wrong to suggest there’s a single view from experts. But improving energy literacy more widely among parliamentarians, the media and the public, and facilitating greater interchange between the civil service and industry, can help build the foundations for a smoother journey to net zero. 

The new government does seem to be alive to this, with the appointment of its clean energy commissioners, half of whom, I’m pleased to note, are fellows of the EI and three serve as EI Council Members. The EI also plays a part in providing introductory training each quarter for civil servants new to energy policy. 

And this is where the Barometer itself can play a role. In fact, Professor Jim Skea, a former President of the EI and now Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, reflected on why he and colleagues set up the Barometer ten years ago: ‘We thought that policymakers, the media and the public needed to hear from professionals about the challenges facing a sector which has been much in the news. We needed to inform wider policy debates.’

That’s as important now as it was then.
 

Energy Barometer 2024: UK Power Shift is available now.

Other key findings from the 2024 Energy Barometer

Solutions to the ‘energy trilemma’ of security, sustainability and affordability are increasingly converging rather than competing, with energy efficiency the stand-out solution to all three. Energy security continues to be seen by respondents as one of the greatest challenges facing the UK, but it is no longer defined by simply securing fossil fuel supplies. There are still trade-offs, but the survey suggests that some of the same approaches can help address all three aspects simultaneously. Energy efficiency stands out as the most immediate and impactful solution – maintaining energy security, advancing the energy transition, alleviating cost-of-living pressures and fuel poverty – alongside a mix of homegrown energy sources, both conventional and renewable.

The parallel electrification of large parts of the economy requires the enabling infrastructure and incentives for low-carbon transport and heating. Clean power alone will not achieve the UK’s energy goals without the parallel electrification across the economy. The connection between modernisation of the grid and decarbonisation of heat and transport is evident, with 61% highlighting the expansion of EV charging infrastructure as a top priority to accelerate electric vehicle adoption. The shift to low-carbon heating remains challenging, with respondents calling for economic incentives and supportive policies to make solutions such as heat pumps more accessible and affordable. 

Further reading: Learn more about how the UK was addressing the fuel crisis: More can be done to help energy consumers through this crisis   
More information about last year's Energy Barometer Power players: the role of future energy leaders in the GCC region