The Clean Power 2030 Report suggests that while the transition to a clean power system is a ‘huge challenge’, it is ‘achievable’. The report outlines several hurdles that must be overcome, as well as the potential benefits for consumers, the economy and society. Notably, the analysis shows that the overall system costs should not increase, with potential reductions in electricity bills due to decreased legacy policy costs (as contracts expire) and improvements in energy efficiency.

Noting that electricity demand could rise by around 11% by 2030, NESO’s report emphasises the need for substantial investment in the energy system. It suggests renewable energy capacity needs to expand ‘significantly’, with offshore wind growing from 15 GW to 43–50 GW in 2030, onshore wind doubling from 14 GW to 27 GW, and solar power tripling from 15 GW to 47 GW in order to displace gas, to meet growing demand and to replace retiring plants. The report also calls for battery storage capacity to rise from the current 5 GW to over 22 GW, and long-duration energy storage to increase from 3 GW to 5–8 GW. Nuclear plant life extensions, together with dispatchable clean resources such as gas with carbon capture and storage (CCS) and low-carbon hydrogen generation will also have an important role to play.

Industry reactions

NESO’s report garnered reactions from various industry stakeholders.

Michael Tholen, Director of Sustainability and Policy at Offshore Energies UK, underscored the importance of a ‘whole system approach to decarbonising the grid’ and stressed the need for ‘massive private sector investment, planning reform, and coordination between government and industry to maximise success’.

Praising the report’s ‘clarity’ on what the renewable energy industry needs to deliver to decarbonise the UK’s electricity system by 2030 was RenewableUK’s Chief Executive Dan McGrail. He added that it was ‘critical that an effective industrial strategy comes alongside this programme to roll out more renewable energy projects’. He also noted the ‘golden opportunity’ for the UK ‘to secure new supply chain investments across the country, and thousands of jobs, if the right framework and grants [are put] in place to compete with the EU and US’. Consumers will benefit too, he continued, noting the report ‘shows that the cost of running a system based on renewables is significantly cheaper than one based on high gas prices’.

Meanwhile, the Association for Renewable Energy and Clean Technology (REA) pointed to the urgent need for a diverse mix of technologies to achieve the UK’s clean power goals. Mark Sommerfeld, Deputy Director of Policy at REA, said: ‘The report underscores that there is no single solution for achieving clean power [by] 2030. The UK has the technologies needed, but realising this goal will require advancing all renewable sources. Wind and solar will form the backbone, while various storage technologies provide flexibility. Bioenergy, including BECCS [bioenergy with carbon, capture and storage], offers crucial firm generation and system stability that make clean power 2030 achievable.’

Not all reactions were entirely positive, however. Solar Energy UK (SEUK) Chief Executive Chris Hewett expressed concerns that the report ‘underplayed’ the potential of solar energy and battery energy storage systems (BESS). The trade association also criticised NESO scenarios for not accurately reflecting current capacity, in particular for rooftop solar, or the potential growth of solar energy technologies. Rather than the 15 GW cited by NESO, SEUK points to official figures suggesting 17.1 GW, although it added that the industry believes the true figure is now approaching 20 GW, up from 17.8 GW at the end of 2023. As a result, SEUK believes that the deployment of both solar and BESS technologies will ‘be even faster than outlined by NESO’.  

Despite these concerns, SEUK agrees with the report’s conclusion that clean power by 2030 is achievable and beneficial. However, this will be dependent on accelerating new transmission infrastructure and reforms to planning and market structures while ensuring a stable and attractive investment environment.

Report detail

The report concludes that ‘clean sources can produce at least as much power as Great Britain will consume in 2030’. However, achieving this goal needs ‘swift action’ from all stakeholders – industry, regulators, government and NESO itself, and will require ‘significant changes in approach’. The right supply, demand, networks and flexibility all need to be developed simultaneously, all in full, at maximum pace and in a sustainable way, in order for the 2030 goal to be achieved, it says.

A critical aspect of the report is the proposed reform of grid connections. With this in mind, NESO has also published a consultation on methodologies to create a more efficient and strategic grid connections process. This marks a shift from the ‘first come, first served’ approach to one that prioritises projects ready to proceed and aligns with future energy system needs.

The report specifies that delivering a clean power system by 2030 will require an installed generation and storage capacity of approximately 210–220 GW. This includes significant levels of new demand connections to the electricity network across both transmission and distribution. The reformed connections process will align with strategic energy plans, initially focusing on the government’s plan for clean power by 2030 and later integrating into the first Strategic Spatial Energy Plan (SSEP).

The report was commissioned by the Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero.

Commenting on the report, Fintan Slye, Chief Executive, NESO, said: ‘There’s no doubt that the challenges ahead on the journey to delivering clean power are great. However, if the scale of those challenges is matched with the bold, sustained actions that are outlined in this report, the benefits delivered could be even greater. A clean power system for Great Britian will deliver a backbone of home-grown energy that breaks the link between volatile international gas prices; that is secure and affordably powers our homes and buildings; that decarbonises the transport that we take to school and work; that drives the businesses of today and catalyses the innovations of the future.’