LNG to overtake pipeline gas by 2035

According to a new report by MJMEnergy, LNG will potentially overtake pipeline gas as the dominant form of international gas trade by 2035. Among its key findings, the LNG supply handbook 2015–2035 reports that world energy demand is expected to grow to between 17,500mn and 20,650mn toe by 2035. World gas demand is forecast to grow to between 4.5tn and 5.3tcm by 2035

The supply of LNG has increased over the last 50 years to 333bn cm (242mn tonnes) in 2014, accounting for 33% of gas internationally traded and around 10% of total gas consumption. LNG demand is forecast to be in the region of 540–940bn cm (391–681mn tonnes) by 2035, with the range of forecasts reflecting the sensitivity of LNG demand to a variety of variables such as the availability and price of pipeline gas. 

The study predicts that the LNG market will be comparatively long for much of the period 2015–2035, driven by new supply in Australia, the US and elsewhere.

Existing LNG capacity, and that currently under construction, will be sufficient to meet forecast global LNG demand until 2026 in the ‘Demand Mid Case’ scenario and throughout the forecast period in the ‘Demand Low Case’. In the ‘Demand High Case’ scenario additional LNG capacity will be required to meet demand post 2021.

For more analysis of the global LNG sector, including a tabulated breakdown of projects onstream and pending, see July issue of Petroleum Review.