Global coal demand to reach 9bn tonnes by 2019

Global demand for coal over the next five years will continue to grow, fuelled mainly by a continually growing Chinese market. By 2019 coal demand will break the 9mn tonne per annum level, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Medium-Term Coal Market Report.

The bulk in demand growth will come from China, despite its efforts to moderate its coal consumption. The report says that during the outlook period China will account for three-fifths of demand growth. India and other countries in Asia will join China as the main engines of growth in coal consumption – more than offsetting projected declines in demand in Europe and the US.

However, and despite the headlines from the report, global coal demand growth has been slowing in recent years and this trend is set to continue. The report estimates that coal demand will grow at an average rate of 2.1% per year through 2019. This is lower than the equivalent 2013 report’s forecast of 2.3% for the five years through 2018 and the actual growth rate of 3.3% per year between 2010 and 2013.

China is making efforts to diversify its energy sources, but the report says that under normal macroeconomic circumstances Chinese coal consumption will still not peak during the five-year outlook period.

‘We have heard many pledges and policies aimed at mitigating climate change, but over the next five years they will mostly fail to arrest the growth in coal demand,’ said IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven. ‘Although the contribution that coal makes to energy security and access to energy is undeniable, I must emphasise once again that coal use in its current form is simply unsustainable. For this to change, we need to radically accelerate deployment of carbon capture and sequestration.’

The report also emphasises the need for more investment in high efficiency coal-fired power plants, especially in emerging economies. ‘New plants are being built, in an arc running from South Africa to Southeast Asia, but too many of these are based on decades-old technology,’ said van der Hoeven. ‘Regrettably, they will be burning coal inefficiently for many years to come.’