‘New climate normal’ poses severe risks to development – World Bank

Dramatic climate changes and weather extremes already affecting millions of lives, but solutions exist to limit effects.

Heat waves and other weather extremes that are unlikely today could become the ‘new climate normal’ with severe consequences for development as crop yields decline, water resources shift, sea-levels rise, and the livelihoods of millions of people are put at risk. This is according to a report released by the World Bank Group, Turn Down the Heat: Confronting the New Climate Normal.

The report maps out some of the consequences of our changing climate, particularly focusing on risk for parts of Central Asia and the Western Balkans, where unprecedented heat extremes could occur in over 60% of summer months and drought risk could increase by 20% in a 4°C warmer world.

Climate change impacts such as extreme heat events may now be unavoidable because the Earth’s atmospheric system is locked into warming close to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by mid-century, the report says. Even very ambitious mitigation action taken today will not change this. 

‘Past emissions have set an unavoidable course to warming over the next two decades, which will affect the world’s poorest and most vulnerable people the most,’ said Jim Yong Kim, President of the World Bank Group. ‘We’re already seeing record-breaking temperatures occurring more frequently, rainfall increasing in intensity in some places, and drought-prone regions like the Mediterranean becoming drier.’ 

These consequences will make the work of groups like the World Bank all the more difficult, where development budgets are already stretched. Many of the worst impacts could be avoided if warming is kept to 2°C, says the report – a scenario is says is possible by taking affordable solutions such as carbon pricing.

The World Bank is working with various developing regions to help them formulate their climate change strategies. It is also working to help fund cleaner energy solutions, stating that it will only fund coal-fired power projects in ‘extreme need’.

One example of efficient energy improvements the World Bank is involved in is the $40mn Republic of Moldova for the District Heating Efficiency Improvement Project, which will improve the efficiency of the district heating services in Chisinau. Moldova is dependent on imports to meet its energy demand, and inefficient energy use is leading to higher energy costs for both industries and residents. The project will benefit the population of Chisinau at large through increased efficiency of the district heating sector and increased reliability of district heating services.