Gas ‘will become part of the problem’ by 2030

Gas could play an important role as a ‘bridging fuel’ to a low carbon economy, but it won’t be long before gas becomes part of the problem rather than the solution, according to research by the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC).

The research combines the latest energy system modelling techniques with analysis of UK gas security to assess future demand. To prevent global temperatures rising above 2°C, the research suggests that further gas use will be needed in the short term to replace coal and complement the increases in low-carbon energy sources that must also occur. However, this is dependent on gas use beginning to fall in the late 2020s and early 2030s, with any major role beyond 2035 requiring the widespread use of carbon capture and storage.

 There is also significant geographical diversity in the role that gas can play in addressing climate change; with a very limited use in some regions and an extended and strong role in others.

‘In just over a decade the UK has gone from being self-sufficient in gas to importing about half of the natural gas that it consumes – mostly from Norway,’ says Prof Mike Bradshaw, from Warwick Business School, who led the gas security work. ‘As the UK’s gas import dependence has grown, it has essentially been globalising its gas security, potentially increasing the exposure of UK consumers to events in global gas markets,’ he adds.

To date the UK has shown resilience to international supply constraints, such as the Russia-Ukraine crisis and conflict in the Middle East. Stress tests have shown that the UK can draw additional supplies from Norway and the global LNG market. However, as domestic production declines, the UK’s reliance on Norwegian gas will grow. Existing Norwegian fields will begin to decline in the 2020s and the UK may have to access its gas via the continental market. This may undermine UK energy security.

The prospect of a UK shale gas revolution has been touted as a solution to domestic security of supply concerns. However, production over the next decade, the key time-period where gas could act as a transition fuel, is unlikely to be of sufficient scale to significantly reduce UK import dependence or gas prices, says UKERC.