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China likely to miss nuclear target – Wood Mackenzie
China will not meet its environmentally driven government target of installing 200 GW of nuclear power capacity by 2030, and coal will remain dominant in the country’s power mix. These are the findings from a report from Wood Mackenzie entitled Are China’s nuclear power plans achievable?
The report suggests that the country could install up to 175 GW of nuclear capacity by the year 2020, but a number of constraints mean this this is an upper ceiling, and the shortfall will translate into opportunities for coal producers. 175 GW would represent 10% of the country’s power mix in 2030, says Wood Mackenzie.
In any case, the figures mean that China would have to install an unprecedented level of nuclear capacity in the next 16 years, up from its current 14.6 GW. If successful, the country would account for 30% of the world’s total nuclear fleet in 2020. Gavin Thompson, Head of Asia Pacific Gas & Power research for Wood Mackenzie said: ‘Putting things into context, in 2013 China made up a mere 4.5% of the global nuclear fleet. Therefore the growth we expect in this timeframe is phenomenal, even if targets are not met.’
Wood Mackenzie also predicts that, while natural gas and renewables will make up some of the shortfall from nuclear, coal will make up the most, and the fuel will account for 64% of the country’s generation mix in 2030. Even though this is less than the 75% seen today, coal will still see net volume growth, due to increased overall energy demand.
Wood Mackenzie believes that the 200 GW nuclear target will not be achieved due to operational and siting challenges; constraints on the pace of local nuclear technology development; a lack of skilled and trained personnel; a lack of supporting infrastructure for uranium fuel fabrication and disposal; and a lack of full support by the public in building inland nuclear plants.
News Item details
Journal title: Energy World
Countries: China -
Subjects: Policy and Governance, Electricity from nuclear fuel, Nuclear fuels
