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UPDATED 1 Sept: The EI library in London is temporarily closed to the public, as a precautionary measure in light of the ongoing COVID-19 situation. The Knowledge Service will still be answering email queries via email , or via live chats during working hours (09:15-17:00 GMT). Our e-library is always open for members here: eLibrary , for full-text access to over 200 e-books and millions of articles. Thank you for your patience.
Large mega dams are not viable – Oxford University
New research from Oxford University suggests that large hydro-electric dams are subject to severe cost and schedule overruns and are unviable and damaging to emerging economies.
The work suggests that in the vast majority of cases, ill-advised construction of large dams results in fragile economies increasing their levels of debt. Oxford University says the study has been published at a time where, following a lull in dam construction, the emerging economies of Brazil, China, Ethiopia, Indonesia, and Pakistan are looking to build mega-dams on an unprecedented scale.
Using an extensive dataset Oxford’s Saїd Business School carried out the systematic, global, and independent study on the outcomes of large dams. Using data from 245 large dams in 65 countries, the findings show the construction costs of large dams are on average 90% higher than their budgets at the time of approval, in real terms.
The study also found that the magnitude of cost overruns has not declined over time. Dam budgets today are as incorrect as at any time during the 70 years for which data exist, says the research. It offers the example of Brazil's Itaipu dam, built in the 1970s, which suffered a 240% cost overrun that impaired the nation’s public finances for three decades. Brazil is currently building the controversial Belo Monte hydroelectric project.
The study also suggests that the long time horizons for building – around ten years – leave dam projects particularly ineffective in resolving urgent energy crises and vulnerability to currency volatility, hyperinflation, political tensions, swings in water availability and electricity prices.
