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What's ahead for propylene supply? F.M. Peterson and J.E. Johnson. Hydrocarbon Processing, May 1994, 73(5), 61--63.

Three scenarios predicted for future polypropylene requirements are based upon conditions of steady growth, recession/inflation, and stagnation/protectionism. The survey suggests that propylene obtained from ethylene manufacturing will grow by 2.0 to 4.8% pa. The increasing use of MTBE in gasoline is changing refining patterns and increasing the need for isobutylene. This trend is expected to push down the value of refinery propylene. In the US, gasoline demand is declining because vehicle engines are becoming smaller and more fuel efficient. The declining ratio of gasoline to the rest of the refinery production state decreases the need for refinery FCC operations in each of the three scenarios. Propane dehydrogenation is expected to be the main future source of propylene.
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