COP26 climate pledges could help limit global warming to 1.8°C, but implementing them will be the key

All the climate pledges announced to date at the UN COP26 climate change summit in Glasgow, if met in full and on time, would be enough to hold the rise in global temperatures to 1.8°C by 2100, according to the latest analysis by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The IEA published its World Energy Outlook (WEO2021) in mid-October, in the run-up to COP26. At this point, more than 120 countries had announced new targets for emissions reductions by 2030, and governments representing about 70% of global CO₂ emissions had pledged to bring those emissions to net zero by 2050 or soon after. However, despite this momentum, those ambitions still fell short of what was called for in the Paris Agreement that was reached at COP21 in 2015. The WEO2021 report showed that even if all announced pledges were implemented in full and on time, the world would be headed for 2.1°C of warming by the end of the century.

Since mid-October, however, more countries have been raising their ambitions. For example, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi strengthened the country’s 2030 targets, pledging to hit net zero emissions by 2070, while several other large economies have also announced pledges to reach net zero emissions, including the United Arab Emirates which is targeting net zero by 2050.

The announcements have not been limited to CO₂ emissions, with more than 100 countries signing up to a Global Methane Pledge aiming to cut emissions of methane – another potent greenhouse gas – by 30% by 2030.

The IEA’s updated analysis of these new targets – on top of all of those made previously – shows that if they are met in full and on time, they would be enough to hold the rise in global temperatures to 1.8°C by the end of the century. This is a landmark moment, according to the IEA, as it is the first time that governments have come forward with targets of sufficient ambition to hold global warming to below 2°C.

However, the IEA also sounds a note of caution – 1.8°C is still above the Paris Agreement target of limiting global warming to well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C.

‘All the climate pledges made globally as of today still leave a 70% gap in the amount of emissions reductions needed by 2030 to keep 1.5°C within reach. Governments are making bold promises for future decades, but short-term action is insufficient,’ it says. ‘What is essential is for governments to turn their pledges into clear and credible policy actions and strategies today. Ambitions count for little if they are not implemented successfully. Tracking and accountability will be critical to ensure countries and companies are following through on their promises.’

At the request of the UK’s COP26 Presidency, the IEA will lead the tracking of global progress against the Glasgow Breakthroughs – five goals aimed at driving down the costs of clean technologies. ‘Meeting these goals will be essential to enabling the achievement of governments’ long-term net zero pledges,’ states the IEA.