EIA projects increase in global energy consumption and emissions until 2050

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has reported that without significant changes in policy or technology, world energy consumption will grow by nearly 50% between 2020 and 2050. In its International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021) report, the EIA projects that strong economic growth, particularly with developing economies in Asia, will drive global increases in energy consumption despite pandemic-related declines and long-term improvements in energy efficiency.

According to the IEO2021, renewable energy consumption has the strongest growth among energy sources until 2050. Liquid fuels remain the largest source of energy consumption, driven largely by the industrial and transportation sectors.

‘Even with growth in renewable energy, without significant policy changes or technological breakthroughs, we project increasing energy-related carbon dioxide emissions through 2050,’ commented EIA Acting Administrator Stephen Nalley.

Renewables will be the primary source for new electricity generation, due to falling technology costs and favourable laws and regulations, but natural gas, coal and increasingly batteries will be used to help meet load and support grid reliability. The EIA projects electricity generation to almost double in developing non-OECD countries by 2050.

Oil and natural gas production will continue to grow, mainly to support increasing energy consumption in developing Asian economies. ‘A driver of this growth is that we believe that the developing economies of the non-OECD, Asia in particular, will import more liquid fuels because those economies lack sufficient production capacity to meet growing demand,’ said Nalley.

Driven by increasing populations and fast-growing economies, the EIA says that consumption of liquid fuels will grow the most in non-OECD Asia, where total energy consumption nearly doubles from 2020 to 2050. It projects that consumption will outpace production in these countries, driving an increase in imports of crude oil or finished petroleum products, primarily from the Middle East.

‘The fast-growing economies in Asia could combine to become the largest importer of natural gas and crude oil by 2050, given their significant increase in energy consumption,’ Nalley said.