COVID-19 and energy transition will expedite peak oil demand to 2028 and cut level to 102mn b/d

The COVID-19 pandemic and the acceleration of the energy transition have led Rystad Energy to significantly revise its long-term oil demand forecast. The virus is expected to have a lasting impact on global oil demand, which it now sees peaking at 102mn b/d in 2028. Before the pandemic, the market analyst had expected peak oil demand of just over 106mn b/d in 2030.

Rystad Energy examines three different scenarios in its long-term oil demand prognosis, and peak demand at 102mn b/d in 2028 is the most likely outcome. This forecast scenario is called the ‘Governmental Targets Scenario’ and assumes the share of oil in various sectors develops in line with stated government goals to move towards a cleaner carbon future, notably in the electrification of transport.

Meanwhile, the persistence of the pandemic is likely to cause 2020 oil demand to decline to 89.3mn b/d, compared to 99.6mn b/d in 2019. Demand will then recover to 94.8mn b/d in 2021, still capped by regional lockdowns and slow international aviation recovery as airlines continue to operate far below pre-virus levels. In its Governmental Targets Scenario, oil demand then recovers to 98.4mn b/d in 2022, still stuck below pre-virus levels due to structural COVID-19 impacts such as less work commuting and slower aviation recovery. It is only in 2023 that demand will recover to pre-pandemic levels and jump back to 100.1mn b/d.

‘The slow recovery will permanently affect global oil demand levels, shaving at least 2.5mn b/d off our forecasts made before the coronavirus. We have lost at least two years of oil demand growth in 2020 and 2021, while before the virus we expected yearly growth of 1mn b/d. The lockdowns will stunt economic recovery in the short-term and in the long-term and the pandemic will also leave behind a legacy of behavioural changes that will also affect oil use,’ says Artyom Tchen, Senior Oil Markets Analyst at Rystad Energy.

Supplementing the effect of COVID-19 on oil demand, the energy transition is accelerating and also weighs on Rystad’s peak oil demand revision. All sectors contribute to the transition, but transport (60% of oil demand) will be the ultimate driver of this shift. By 2025, the plug-in-hybrid and battery electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to achieve 14% market share in new passenger vehicle sales, according to public governmental targets, then further grow to 80% by 2050.

In the short-and-medium-term, Rystad also accounts for an indirect impact of COVID-19 on oil demand prompted by individual behavioural changes. Although some more months will be needed to fully assess how the pandemic has reshaped peoples’ habits and companies’ business models, the market analyst has already observed some behavioural headwinds to oil demand recovery from slower rush-hour traffic recovery in summer, an indication that a fraction of commuters will continue working from home even after lockdowns are lifted.

It expects this behavioural headwind to visibly cap demand recovery towards 2023. On the aviation side, the behavioural barriers to oil recovery can be even stronger as cost-cutting policies and teleconferencing may cap aviation business travel recovery, while some leisure travellers are also expected to abstain from airborne travel in the first years following the pandemic.

Interestingly, a sustained commitment is observed from vehicle manufacturers and governments to meet electrification and CO₂ abatement targets, little changed even by the economic turmoil brought by COVID-19. This proves the resilience of the ongoing technological developments, notes Rystad. However, oil substitution effects are not yet strong enough to derail oil demand from recovering to pre-virus levels and then growing for a few years to come.

Between 2025 and 2030, oil demand will enter a plateau phase at around 102mn b/d, forecasts Rystad. In this phase, it no longer sees any residual COVID-19 impacts. The market analyst expects firm structural demand growth driven mostly by developing Asia and Africa, which will push demand up, and an increasing, yet weak substitution impact in the road transportation segment as well as a continued structural decline in the power, industry and buildings sectors, which will drive down demand. In this phase, it estimates that these effects will roughly cancel each other out.

The post-peak phase (2030–2050) is characterised by the acceleration in EV adoption and recycled plastics use, which will also spill over to developing countries and satisfy part of their energy demand. In the very long-term, Rystad sees a steep decline of oil demand to 62mn b/d in 2050, driven by the high penetration rate of EVs in the automotive industry. In addition, the convergence of plastics recycling rates to around 70–75% – rates currently observed in other materials such as glass, aluminium cans and iron – will also contribute to that declining trend, albeit at a lesser extent.

The sectors that contribute most to the demand shift from a plateau to post-peak decline are passenger vehicles and trucks/buses. Historically, these two sectors represent the biggest share of oil demand, accounting together for 48% of the total. At the same time, Rystad expects more sustained and prolonged demand support from the aviation segment, where feasible/viable substitution technologies are limited as well as in the petrochemical sector, where only a portion of plastics consumption can be recycled and substituted by bioplastics. In the post-peak phase, the rise of EV adoption will accelerate and spill over to developing countries, contributing to the precipitous demand fall.

Geographically, the demand growth observed until 2030 will be driven by Asia, led by China and India. In fact, for many Asian, Latin American and African countries to satisfy economic expansion and middle-class growth plans, oil demand will most probably increase through 2030 in those countries. Afterward, the energy demand in developing countries is expected to keep increasing, driven by GDP and population growth, but will be increasingly satisfied by alternative sources and new technologies in a decarbonisation push.

Developing countries in Asia and Africa will see a sustained increase in oil demand through to the end of the 2040s in Rystad’s updated forecast, as infrastructure hurdles and heavy discounts on imported used internal combustion engines will make it harder for new technologies to penetrate these regions, particularly in rural areas.

‘Overall, we do not believe COVID-19 has put peak oil demand behind us, but we do acknowledge the pandemic will greatly alter the peak oil demand reckoning moment, both in terms of timing and volumes. This will help oil substitution gain speed and inevitably take global consumption to lower levels quicker, hand in hand with the energy transition,’ Tchen concludes.

Figure 1: Long-term global oil demand forecast, split by region, in mn b/d
Source: Rystad Energy