Analysing United Kingdom’s Climate Change-Energy Policies: Are They Adequate to Achieve Net Zero?

Rising sea levels, increase in global mean temperature (global warming) and melting of sea ice and glaciers; these are some of the evidences that have led to the general consensus on the issue of climate change being a global problem. Some scientists claim that climate change is the planet’s “greatest long-term challenge”, with undisputable connections to human operations and activities. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Carbon dioxide (CO₂), which is a product of fossil fuel combustion, is the most significant greenhouse gas (GHG) made by humans. Researchers claim that CO₂ will be solely responsible for about 67% of potential global warming in the next ten years. Although all the GHGs drive climate change, this research only focuses on CO₂ emissions because of its significance relative to other GHGs.

In the bid to tackle climate change and global warming, the United Kingdom (UK) has set a target to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050, passing “net zero emission” laws and policies. My research evaluated the adequacy of these policies in achieving the 2050 net zero target by forecasting UK’s CO₂ emission up till 2050, based on trends of variables (predictors) that significantly influence UK’s emission levels.

Firstly, this research established the connection between the UK’s CO₂ emissions and predictors by running a regression model between emission levels and ten independent variables from 1990 – 2018. The results revealed that consumption of crude oil products for transportation, the installed capacity of renewable energy technologies, residential consumption of natural gas, electricity consumed in commercial and public services and net energy import, significantly explain variations in UK’s CO₂ emissions.

Secondly, trend analysis was utilised in forecasting the variables that significantly influence UK’s CO₂ emissions. Finally, from the regression model, trend analysis and projections, UK’s CO₂ emission was estimated at 12 Mt for the year 2050, a 97.8% reduction compared to 1990 levels. The model in this research forecasted 2019’s 2.9% reduction in CO₂ emissions, as reported by Carbon Brief in March 2020.

This emission forecast suggests that existing measures in the UK are insufficient to achieve the 2050 net zero target. The government must therefore improve current transportation, power and housing policies.

This research strongly advises country governments all over the world to increase installed Renewable Energy (RE) capacity in the power sector and the RE share in electricity generation and consumption, while investing in large scale energy storage solutions. Governments of industrialised countries are also advised to establish policies that decarbonise the transportation sector by electrifying passenger means of transport and increasing biofuel production to serve existing fossil fuel-powered vehicles.

The effect of climate change is not restricted to international borders. The “global” effect of reducing emissions in a particular country will not be seen if there is a corresponding increase in emissions in another part of the world. The fight against climate change must take a global approach.

Daniel Adewuyi

MSc Energy and Economics

Heriot Watt University

[email protected]

References:

1. Aydin, G., (2015) 'The development and validation of regression models to predict energy-related CO₂ emissions in Turkey', Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 10(2), pp. 176-182.
2. BEIS (2019) UK becomes first major economy to pass net zero emissions law. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-becomes-first-major-economy-to-pass-net-zero-emissions-law [Accessed: 21 April 2020].
3. Köne, A.Ç. and Büke, T., (2010) ‘Forecasting of CO₂ emissions from fuel combustion using trend analysis’, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 14(9), pp. 2906-2915.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Energy Institute or its members.