IEA sustainable recovery ‘roadmap’ would aid economies

Investing $1tn in green recovery measures annually for the next three years could drive economic growth, create millions of jobs and place CO2 emissions into structural decline, according to pandemic stimulus guidelines drawn up by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

In its Special Report on Sustainable Recovery, the agency emphasised that failure to implement green measures in the coming months could lead to the development of new high-carbon infrastructure that puts the goals of the Paris Agreement out of reach.

According to the IEA, adherence to the Sustainable Recovery Plan would add 1.1% to global economic growth each year. It would also boost the annual growth of developing countries by around 1.3% and result in global GDP being 3.5% higher in 2023 than it would have been otherwise. The plan’s effect on global employment would also be notable – creating some 9mn jobs per year over the next three years.

Based on detailed assessments of more than 30 specific energy policy measures, the Sustainable Recovery Plan considers cost-effective approaches, the circumstances of individual countries, existing pipelines of energy projects and current market conditions. It covers six key sectors – electricity, transport, industry, buildings, fuels and emerging low-carbon technologies.

In the electricity industry, the agency recommends expanding and modernising grids, accelerating the rollout of wind and solar PV and maintaining a role for both hydro and nuclear power. Transport measures include the expansion of both high-speed rail networks and EV charging infrastructure. Meanwhile, the plan says that buildings would benefit from energy efficiency retrofits, while industry must explore increased electrification.

The IEA notably advocates for the expansion of existing low-carbon infrastructure and approaches, rather than pushing for the creation of novel solutions. However, it does say that there are opportunities to scale up clean hydrogen and carbon capture technologies, as well as small modular nuclear reactors.

Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA’s Executive Director argued that governments are currently presented with the ‘once-in-a-lifetime opportunity’ to reboot economies and spur new employment opportunities while setting the stage for a sustainable future.

‘This report lays out the data and analysis showing that a cleaner, fairer and more secure energy future is within our reach,’ Birol said. ‘The Sustainable Recovery Plan would make 2019 the definitive peak in global emissions, putting them on a path towards achieving long-term climate goals.’

The largest portions of jobs created through the recovery blueprint would be in building retrofitting and in the electricity sector – primarily in grids and renewables. Other areas that would see higher employment include energy efficiency in industries such as manufacturing, food and textiles, as well as low-carbon transport infrastructure, says the report.

There was a notable rise in global greenhouse emissions when governments worked to bounce back from the financial crisis of 2008–2009. However, the costs of clean energy technologies, such as wind and solar, are much lower now than they were 12 years ago. These favourable economics, combined with the fact the emissions are said to have flatlined last year, provide a base for putting emissions into structural decline.