Doubts over short-term growth of EU wind energy

The report: Wind Energy Outlook to 2023 details possible outcomes of Europe’s National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs), which member states are currently preparing to show the EU how it can fulfil its climate and energy objectives by 2030. 

WindEurope’s best estimate for wind growth in the next five years would see new installations totalling 88 GW, bringing Europe’s total installed capacity to 299 GW by 2023. This scenario assumes that all projects are built according to their current timelines. 

However, unambitious NECPs, permitting issues, delays and no positive improvements to current legislation, could result in only 67 GW of new wind power over the same period. Permitting issues are already leading to undersubscribed auctions (notably in Germany) and lower installation rates than expected. 

Conversely, with very clear and ambitious NECPs, significant improvements to permitting arrangements and higher investments in new grid capacity, governments could see Europe’s wind energy capacity grow by 112 GW over the next five years. 

Under all the scenarios, 75% of new installations will be onshore wind projects, with Spain, Sweden and Norway currently leading growth in this market. Meanwhile, the UK will account for 35% of the growth in offshore wind over the next five years, followed by the Netherlands and Germany. 

'Wind energy should be growing rapidly when you consider all the interest in climate change plus the fact the wind is the cheapest form of new power energy production,’ said WindEurope CEO Giles Dickson. ‘But… it’s getting harder to secure permits for new wind farms in many countries, the grids and energy markets are still not functioning as they should, and many governments simply haven’t decided yet how much new wind they want and when and how they’re going to build it.’ 

According to Dickson, the 2030 NECPs will be crucial in bringing about clarity and improvements. However, he noted, if governments fail to up their policy ambitions ‘we won’t meet the 32% renewables target, let alone any higher targets.’