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Industry projections for nuclear generation capacity revised upwards

The World Nuclear Association (WNA) has revised its projections for nuclear generating capacity growth upwards for the first time in eight years. The organisation says the improved forecast follows the introduction of nuclear-friendly policies in countries such as China and India.

The WNA’s Nuclear Fuel Report also cites modified energy policies in France – which has delayed the planned reduction of nuclear in its electricity mix, and permitted lifetime extensions of existing reactors beyond 40 years – as one reason for the revised projections. Meanwhile, the process of granting a second operating licence extension for some nuclear reactors in the US has begun, allowing the country’s reactors to operate for 80 years.

The report’s ‘upper’ and ‘reference’ scenarios show global nuclear capacities growing over the period to 2040 at a faster rate than at any time since 1990. This increase is primarily attributed to comprehensive reactor building programmes in India, China and other countries in Asia.

While projected growth in the ‘reference’ scenario is moderate, with capacity growing to 569 GW by 2040, in the ‘upper’ the present level of nuclear capacity is expected to almost double to 776 GW.

In comparison, the International Energy Agency (IEA)’s 2018 World Energy Outlook predicted that installed nuclear capacity could grow by 25% from 2016 – when it totalled about 414 GW – to around 518 GW by 2040. Under the report’s ‘New Policies Scenario’ nuclear’s contribution to global power generation would be about 10% in 2040.

At present, the global nuclear industry is targeting a ‘harmony’ goal of providing at least 25% of electricity by 2050. Reaching this means that nuclear generation must triple globally by 2050.

‘Achieving the harmony goal… will require a rapid ramp-up of new nuclear build, higher than projected in the upper scenario, which in turn would lead to the need of greater amounts of uranium, enrichment, fuel fabrication, transport and used fuel services,’ says WNA Director General Agneta Rising. ‘Nuclear fuel cycle participants should be prepared to meet a potential large increase in demand to meet the harmony goal.’

Worldwide nuclear generation in 2018 increased for the sixth successive year, reaching 2563 TWh, more than 10% of global electricity demand, according to the WNA’s latest annual: World Nuclear Performance Report. Though despite recent growth, the 2018 total is still below the record high recorded in 2006. 

News Item details


Journal title: Energy World

Countries: India - China -

Organisation: World Nuclear Association

Subjects: Policy and Governance, Energy policy, Nuclear

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