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Global CO2 vehicle emission reduction measures falter

Vehicle fuel economy improvements have slowed globally, according to a new report by the Global Fuel Economy Initiative (GFEI), a partnership that helps governments and transport stakeholders promote greater fuel economy. 

The report, authored by GFEI partners the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), reviews developments in fuel economy and highlights the changes which have shaped the global fleet of light-duty vehicles (LDVs) – motor vehicles weighing under 4.5 tonnes – over a 12-year period.

The slowdown in efficiency improvements was especially pronounced in countries with advanced economies. Indeed 27 countries – including the UK, Canada and Sweden – saw an increase or stagnation in average vehicle CO2 emissions in the two years up to 2017.

Overall, global fuel economy has improved by an average of 1.7% per year over the past 12 years, says the report, although the rate of improvement has slowed to 1.4% in the past two years. In advanced economies, improvements in fuel consumption slowed to an average of just 0.2% per year between 2015 and 2017.

The slowdown in these advanced economies stems from a variety of factors. In the EU, consumer preference shifted away from more fuel-efficient diesel LDVs to similarly sized petrol engines. There was also a rise in ownership of less efficient, larger vehicles, especially between 2015 and 2016 – a rise concurrent with the decline in fuel prices after 2014.

A further barrier to fuel economy improvements has been the growing market share of sport‐utility vehicles (SUVs) and pick‐ups, whose market share increased by 11% over the last three years, with significantly high market shares (up to 60% in 2017) in North America and Australia. Despite improvements in fuel efficiency for all vehicle types, the shift to these larger, less efficient vehicles pulled down average vehicle fuel economy.

These factors were not offset by an uptake in fuel saving technologies, such as hybrid, plug-in hybrid and battery electric technologies, according to the report. LDVs with these technologies represented less than 4% of new LDV sales in 2017, even though such models had tripled their market share from 2015. Noticeably, countries with mandatory fuel economy standards or efficiency-based incentives for vehicle purchase saw 60% faster improvements than those without.

In contrast, the improvement of fuel use per kilometre in emerging economies accelerated to 2.3% between 2015 and 2017. This was bolstered by China – where fuel economy is subject to regulations requiring significant improvements – and India, a market that has traditionally been characterised by large shares of small and fuel-efficient cars.

These slumps in efficiency improvements are particularly concerning within the wider global context. To meet the UN’s Sustainable Development Goal 7.3, requiring fuel economy of LDVs to double by 2030, would necessitate annual improvements to the global fleet of an average of 3.7%, more than triple the improvement rate between 2016 and 2017, the report says.
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