Global demand for cooling appliances to quadruple by 2050

Soaring global demand for cooling appliances – which are set to quadruple to 14bn by 2050 – could see a ‘staggering’ rise in the world’s energy consumption, and will pose a significant risk to developing nations if not delivered in a sustainable way, two new reports warn.

The 14bn devices forecast by 2050 – up from the current 3.6bn – will consume three times the amount of energy currently used for cooling, according to a report by the University of Birmingham. Anticipated key drivers behind the surge include increasing global population, expanding urbanisation and climate change impacts leading more frequent heatwaves and temperature rises.

These factors will also pose a ‘major risk’ to climate change and development – particularly in developing nations across Asia, Southeast Asia, Africa, Central and South America, where cooling access gaps are the largest – unless action is taken to develop sustainable and affordable cooling solutions, according to a separate report by the UN’s Sustainable Energy for All (SE4ALL) initiative.

In its report titled A Cool World - Defining the Energy Conundrum of ‘Cooling for All’, the University of Birmingham states that, unless action is taken beyond current technologies and efficiency gains, cooling will account for 19,600 TWh of energy consumption per year against the current annual world ‘cooling budget of 6,300 TWh, which is compatible with a 2˚C warming scenario.

Alongside aiming to reduce overall cooling demand, the report stresses the need for a ‘whole new system’ approach to cooling, which both recognises available free and waste cold and heat resources and incorporates new technologies, data connectivity and thermal energy storage to meet demand in the most efficient way possible.

The report also suggests a number of measures – to either reduce the energy required for cooling or reducing the need for cooling. These include: encouraging industry to adopt high-efficiency cooling technologies; better building design; ‘systems level thinking’ across built environment and transport; harnessing waste resources, such as ‘wrong time’ renewables, and considering the skills and strategies required for installing and maintaining appliances to maximise efficiency.

At a local level, the report recommends creating a model for delivery of affordable cooling to those in rural communities based on the energy needs of local requirements, rather than a ‘one size fits all’ approach. It also calls for the creation of a series of ‘Living Labs’, which would engage at community level to test and demonstrate new technologies.

According to the SE4ALL report, Chilling Prospects: Providing Sustainable Cooling for All, the development of efficient and affordable cooling technologies will also be pivotal to meeting the cooling needs of developing nations in hot climates. It says that 1.1bn people worldwide face ‘immediate risks’ from the lack of access to cooling, including those living in poor rural areas, and those in urban slums with ‘little or no cooling’ to protect them from heatwaves. Among the countries most at risk are India, Bangladesh, Brazil, Pakistan, Nigeria, Indonesia, China, Mozambique and Sudan.

The report, which attributes an estimated 10% of global warming emissions to cooling demand, also highlights the significant impact that future choices about refrigerants, the efficiency of cooling technologies and how cooling is powered will have on achieving the Paris Climate Agreement.

It calls for urgent action from government policymakers, business leaders, investors and civil society to increase access to sustainable cooling solutions for all.