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E-vehicles to surge by late 2020s, with e-buses to overtake electrical car sales

Sales of electric buses (EBs) and electric cars (ECs) are set to surge by the late 2020s to 84% and 28% respectively, as falling battery costs and larger-scale manufacturing lead to a decline in internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, according to the Bloomberg Energy Finance (BNEF) 2018 Vehicle Outlook.

According to the report, global sales of electric vehicles will increase from a record 1.1mn last year to 11mn in 2025, and then to 30mn in 2030 in 2030. This will impact the number of diesel and petrol-powered internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles sold per year, which is expected to start declining in the mid-2020s. Leading the electric transition is China, which will account for nearly 50% of the global electric vehicle (EV) market in 2025 and 39% in 2030.

The advance of EBs will rapidly overtake that of ECs, according to BNEF’s analysis, which shows that EBs in almost all charging configurations have a lower total cost of ownership than conventional buses by 2019. There are currently 300,000 EBs operating in China, while electric models are expected to dominate the global market by the late 2020s.

In 2040, around 60mn EVs are projected be sold – equivalent to 55% of the global light-duty vehicle market.

The move to EVs is expected to have major implications for electricity demand, and for the oil market. Forecast to use 2,000 TWh in 2040, they will add 6% to global electricity demand. Meanwhile, the switch from ICE to EVs is forecast to displace 7.3mn b/d of transport fuel.

The outlook for EV sales will be influenced by how quickly charging infrastructure spreads across key markets, coupled with the growth of shared markets.

The pace of electrification in transport will vary country by country, particularly over the next 12 years as some markets overtake others. By 2030, for example, EVs will make up 44% of European light-duty sales, 41% in China, 34% in the US and 17% in Japan. However, a shortage of charging infrastructure and a lack of affordable models will see the Indian market lagging behind, with EVs making up 7% of new car sales there in 2030.

Colin McKerracher, Lead Analyst on Advanced Transportation for BNEF, says: ‘Developments over the last 12 months, such as manufacturers’ plans for model roll-outs and new regulations on environmental pollution have bolstered our bullish view of the prospects for EVs.’

Ali Izadi-Najafabadi, Lead Analyst for Intelligent Mobility at BNEF, adds: ‘We predict that the global shared mobility fleet will swell from just under 5mn vehicles today to more than 20mn by 2040. By then, over 90% of these cars will be electric due to lower operating costs. Highly autonomous vehicles will account for 40% of the shared mobility fleet.’

The BNEF report also takes an in-depth look at whether the increased appetite for metals such as lithium and cobalt spurred by the rise of electrified transport could lead to supply shortages for these key metals.

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In other EV related news, Pivot Power is reported to have secured some £1.6bn of investment to fund the rollout of grid-scale 50 MW batteries and rapid vehicle charging stations across 45 sites in the UK, beginning in Southampton in 2019. The batteries will be used to power public rapid charging points, electric bus depots and bases for large transport fleets.

Meanwhile, BP Ventures is to invest $20mn in ultra-fast charging battery developer StoreDot. According to Tufan Erginbilgic, Chief Executive, Downstream, BP: ‘Ultra-fast charging is at the heart of BP’s electrification strategy. StoreDot’s technology shows real potential for car batteries that can charge in the same time it takes to fill a gas tank.’

News Item details


Journal title: Petroleum Review|Energy World

Subjects: Electricity markets, Oil markets, Road transport, Electric vehicles, Batteries

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