Energy demand for air conditioning to triple by 2050 – IEA

The increasing use of air conditioning in homes and offices worldwide will be among the leading drivers of the growth in global energy demand over the next 30 years, with energy demand for air conditioning units set to triple by 2050.

As a result there is an urgent need for policy action to improve cooling efficiency, says the International Energy Agency (IEA), whose report, The Future of Cooling, says that, without action, the global stock of air conditioners in buildings will grow to 5.6bn by 2050, up from 1.6bn today. This growth equates to around ten air conditioning units being sold every second for the next 30 years.

The IEA says that without new efficiency standards the world will face a ‘cold crunch’ from the growth in cooling demand, which would require new electricity generation equivalent to today’s capacity in the US, the EU and Japan. The rise in electricity demand for air conditioning will only be superseded by electricity demand growth in the industrial sector, says the IEA.

According to the IEA, cooling from air conditioners and electric fans already accounts for around a fifth of the total electricity used in buildings, or around 10% of total global electricity consumption.

The forecasted rise in demand is due to a projected rise in income and living standards in developing countries in hotter regions of the world. The IEA says that in India the share of air conditioning in peak electricity load could reach 45% in 2050, up from 10% today. This would require new power capacity to meet peak power demand at night, which cannot be met with solar PV technology.

Dr Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the IEA said that the ‘growing electricity demand for air conditioning is one of the most critical blind spots in today’s energy debate.’

The IEA says that the efficiency of new air conditioning units needs to improve, particularly in the US and China, where units are typically 25% less efficient than in Japan and the EU. It is advocating the use of mandatory energy performance standards for air conditioning units to cut the growth in demand by half.

An ‘Efficient Cooling Scenario’ in its report, compatible with the goals of the Paris Agreement, says that the average efficiency of the global air conditioning stock could double between now and 2050 – reducing the need for new electricity generation infrastructure. This could also save up to $2.9tn in investment, fuel and operating costs, says the IEA.

The IEA’s report’s messages have been echoed by others including Professor Toby Peters from the Birmingham Energy Institute, who says that, by 2050, 9.5bn cooling appliances would increase global demand for cooling to 7,500 TWh, from 2017’s 3,900 TWh – even if these appliances are more energy efficient.

Speaking at an event on cooling at the University of Birmingham he said: ‘If we are to sustainably deliver cooling for all, we must stop thinking that green electricity and technology efficiency can meet the demand alone. Unless we think thermally, not just electrically, we are sitting on a carbon time-bomb. The challenge is how to embed this approach quickly enough to avoid investment in conventional equipment that lock in cooling emissions for years or decades.’