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Trump must hope shale producers can continue to spring surprises

Oil markets were not badly affected by the US decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal. Brent crude rose from around $74 to $77 a barrel. Over the last five years, the main influences on oil prices have been Opec who agreed to production cuts and US shale producers whose production has climbed steadily.Inj the past 12 months Brent has risen steadily from $50 a barrel to around $75. Ever since US shale producers came on-stream  in 2014,OPEC had struggled to cope. Saudi Arabia might want to help out the US and be supportive of the USA's stance on  Iran but it also needs oil to rise to pay for its economic reform programme and to ensure it gets a good valuation when it floats Saudi Aramco. A price of around $80 seems a likely target.

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