Continued gas use is ‘incompatible with Europe’s climate targets’

Europe has only nine more years of using gas and other fossil fuels at its current rate before over-shooting its share of the carbon budget to keep to 2°C of warming, according to a new study from the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. The study, commissioned by Friends of the Earth Europe (FoEE), says that even in the event of a managed phase-out, fossil fuels including natural gas can have no substantial role beyond 2035 in the EU’s energy system. If Europe is to keep in line with a 1.5°C target, the phase out would have to occur even faster, says the report.

The study says that there is ‘categorically no role for bringing additional fossil fuel reserves, including gas, into production’. It says that an urgent programme to phase out existing natural gas and other fossil fuel use across the EU is imperative. FoEE says that the study comes as the EU is set to publish a list of 55 new major gas projects it is considering for public funding. Professor Kevin Anderson from Continued gas use is ‘incompatible with Europe’s climate targets’ the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and Teesside University said: ‘If the EU is to transform its energy system to align with the Paris temperature and equity commitments, it cannot continue with business-as-usual and must instead initiate a rapid phase-out of all fossil fuels including natural gas.

This needs to begin now and be complete within the coming two decades.’ The study indicates that the increased use of gas could ‘lock-in’ Europe to a future of using fossil fuels that is incompatible with its Paris Agreement commitments. It also highlights the contribution of upstream methane emissions which it says are at ‘dangerously high levels’, with governments significantly underestimating these. It says worldwide methane emissions could amount to 0.6°C of global warming. FoEE advocates that the EU ends all fossil fuel subsidies.

Meanwhile, statistics from the International Gas Association CEDIGAZ indicate that global gas consumption grew by 1.6% in 2016 – in line with the past five-year average growth. The statistics indicate that gas consumption in Europe in 2016 grew by 7.6% to reach 460bn m3. Consumption also grew in Asia and the Middle East, but fell in South and Central America.

• The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has said that a rapid adoption of electric vehicles could contribute to world oil demand peaking in the second half of the 2030s, in its annual World Oil Outlook report, published in November. Its main scenario sees oil demand reaching 114mn barrels per day by 2039 from around 96mn barrels today, but a faster EV growth scenarios sees demand peak in 2035 at around 108mn barrels per day. For a different angle on gas’ role in displacing emissions from coal power, see see page 28.