Paris Agreement enters into force

The first ever global deal on climate change will come into force in November after the conditions for it to take effect were met faster than many were expecting. 

The Paris Agreement was adopted at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) COP21 meeting in Paris last December (see Energy World January 2016). Under the agreement countries will take a bottom-up approach to aim to keep global temperature rises to ‘well below’ 2°C on pre-industrial levels by implementing country-specific emissions reduction plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). These will be regularly revisited with the aim of increasing emissions reduction ambitions.

It was agreed in Paris that for the deal to come into force at least 55 countries out of the 197 UNFCCC Parties need to formally ratify it, and those countries also need to represent at least 55% of global emissions.

We reported in October that the US and China had ratified the deal, meaning 38% of emissions were covered. Subsequently India (4%) and Canada (2%) ratified. Then the European Union (12%) fast-tracked the political process for the bloc to ratify, with the European Parliament approving ratification in early October. This meant the country and emission thresholds were passed, allowing the agreement to come into effect on the 4th of this month.

At the time of writing 81 countries had ratified the deal, representing 60% of global emissions. The rapid entry into force is beyond even Christiana Figueres’ (former Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC) speculation earlier this year that the agreement would take effect two years earlier than expected – in 2018.

The triggering of the agreement now means that a governing body, known as the CMA, will be set up at the UNFCCC’s COP22 meeting in Marrakesh – which starts on 7 November. An ‘implementation rule book’ will be created to standardise the reporting and accounting of emissions reduction measures worldwide.

Governments are now obliged to take action through their NDCs to achieve the goals in the agreement to limit the global temperature rise to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. 

Temperatures have already risen by around 1°C on pre-industrial levels, according to the World Meteorological Organisation. New analysis suggests that NDC pledges are inadequate to limit the rise to 2°C and says that without additional action and advanced technologies, temperatures could hit the 2°C threshold by 2050. The truth about climate change, a publication from a group of climate scientists led by Sir Robert Watson, former Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, says that the high ambition Paris Agreement temperature target of 1.5°C is almost certainly unobtainable and could be reached by the early 2030s – due to greenhouse gases that have already been emitted.

‘Climate change is happening now and much faster than anticipated,’ said Watson. ‘While the Paris Agreement is an important step in the right direction, what is needed is a doubling or tripling of efforts.’

A global deal to reduce the emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) – potent greenhouse gases – has been reached, under which HFC consumption will be reduced by 10% in 2019 in developed countries and frozen from 2024 in developing countries. The ‘Kigali Agreement’ could potentially prevent up to 0.5°C of temperature rise, according to the United Nations.