EIA short-term energy outlook

The US Energy Administration (EIA) short-term energy outlook forecasts that Brent crude oil prices will average $34/b in 2016 and $40/b in 2017, $3/b and $10/b lower than forecast in the previous outlook. The lower forecast prices are said to reflect that oil production has been more resilient than expected in a low-price environment, with lower expectations for forecast oil demand growth.

US crude oil production averaged 9.4mn b/d in 2015, and is forecast to average 8.7mn b/d in 2017. The EIA expects global consumption of petroleum and other liquid fuels to grow from 93.7mn b/d in 2015 by 1.1mn b/d in 2016 and by 1.2mn b/d in 2017.