Closure of UK coal and nuclear plants ‘to create supply gap’ by 2025

The government’s policy to close all coal-fired power stations by 2025, combined with the retirement of the majority of the UK’s ageing nuclear fleet and growing electricity demand, will leave the UK facing a 40–55% electricity supply gap, according to a report by the Institution of Mechanical Engineers (IMechE).

The report: Engineering the UK Electricity Gap says that plans to plug the gap by building combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) plants are unrealistic, as the UK would need to build about 30 new CCGT plants in less than 10 years, having built just four in the last decade. In addition, in 2005 twenty nuclear sites were listed for decommissioning, leaving a significant gap to be filled.

According to the report, the country has neither the resources nor enough people with the right skills to build this many power stations in time. It is already too late for any other nuclear reactors to be planned and built by the coal shut-off target of 2025, other than Hinkley Point C, adds the IMechE.

Dr Jenifer Baxter, Head of Energy and Environment at the IMechE and lead author of the report said: ‘The UK is facing an electricity supply crisis. As the UK population rises and with the greater use of electricity use in transport and heating it looks almost certain that electricity demand is going to rise. However, with little or no focus on reducing electricity demand, the retirement of the majority of the country’s ageing nuclear fleet, recent proposals to phase out coal-fired power by 2025 and the cut in renewable energy subsidies, the UK is on course to produce even less electricity than it does at the moment.’

Baxter continued: ‘Government needs to take urgent action to work with industry to create a clear pathway with timeframes and milestones for new electricity infrastructure to be built, including fossil fuel plants, nuclear power, energy storage and combined heat and power. With carbon capture and storage (CCS) now out of the picture, new low carbon innovations must be supported over the course of the next 10 years.’

However, the IMechE has been criticised for taking an oversimplified approach, and failing to understand that, rather than rising, peak electrical loads in the UK are expected to remain roughly steady for a decade or so. Also, that lost coal-fired and nuclear generation capacity is likely to be replaced with a range of smaller-scale alternatives – new peak generation plant, renewables, storage, energy efficiency and demand response. In particular, the new electricity capacity market has been established to ensure adequate generation capacity – to date it has encouraged a range of different generation plant.

Energy and Climate Change Secretary Amber Rudd gave a typically blunt response: ‘We know that old and dirty coal, and some ageing nuclear power plants will be closing over the next few years, and that's precisely why we’ve put in place a long-term plan to ensure we have secure, affordable and clean energy supplies that can be relied on now and in the future. We are the first country to propose an end date to using unabated coal and we will do so in a way that maintains energy security, which comes first.  We are clear that a range of energy sources such as nuclear, offshore wind and shale gas all have roles to play in the low carbon energy mix, powering our country and safeguarding our future economic security.’