European Union on track for 2020 emissions target

The European Union is over-performing on its specified rate of greenhouse gas emissions cuts and is likely to not just meet but to overachieve its 2020 target. This is according to a report from the European Environment Agency (EEA), Trends and projections in Europe 2015.

According to the report, greenhouse gas emissions in Europe decreased by 23% between 1990 and 2014 to reach the lowest levels on record. Member State projections indicated that under current policies the EU will hit a 24% reduction by 2020 and, with additional measures that are planned by some Member States, a 25% cut on 1990 levels could be achieved.

The EU’s 2020 target for emissions reduction was set at a 20% reduction on 1990 levels; alongside a 20% increase in renewable energy levels across the EU and a 20% improvement in energy efficiency. These came together to make the memorable 20:20:20 targets for 2020.

The EU has set a goal as a bloc for a 40% emissions reduction on 1990 levels by 2030 and this forms the basis of its climate pledge in advance of the UN COP21 climate summit.

The EEA report looks at proxy estimates for 2014 greenhouse gas emissions, finding that they fell by 4% in 2014 compared to 2013 – due partly to warm weather. It also says that reductions in emissions are projected to continue beyond 2020 but at a slower pace. Planned Member State reductions are estimated to bring emissions down to between 27% below 1990 levels by 2030, says the report.

Commenting on the report EU Commissioner for Climate Action and Energy Miguel Arias Cañete said: ‘These results speak for themselves: Europe succeeded in cutting emissions by 23% between 1990 and 2014 while the European economy grew by 46% over the same period.’

The findings in the EEA report did come under some criticism however. Climate think-tank Sandbag said that the EEA has downplayed the level of emissions cuts Europe can expect for 2030, and also that spare EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) allowances in the system could undermine progress towards the 40% 2030 target.

Sandbag says that under its own analysis and emissions forecast for the traded sector the EU is on track to cut domestic emissions by 28–29% by 2030, due to the higher-than-expected current rate of savings.

Sandbag says that the over-performance on the ‘weak’ 2020 target could dilute the 2030 target by banking spare carbon allowances from the ETS and using them in the new climate package. The think-tank expects 4.4bn allowances to carried over, and if these are used it would be equivalent to weakening Europe’s 40% target down to a level of 26%, it says.