Events this summer in the Middle East remind us that the Gulf is not just a regional story; it is a crucial cog in the global energy and logistics system. With Qatar now at the centre of geopolitical tensions, the risks are no longer abstract. As one of the world’s top exporters of LNG, any perception of instability in Doha reverberates across Europe, Asia and beyond.

As we saw earlier this year, with strikes and retaliatory attacks across the region between Israel and Iran triggering a surge in volatility, the ramifications for businesses are very real. Brent crude spiked more than 10% within days, airlines rerouted flights to avoid the Gulf, and the potential of disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and LNG flows, sent freight costs soaring.

For logistics companies, the shock was immediate but manageable, yet it underscored how dependent Europe and Asia remain on stable Gulf supply lines. The lasting message was clear: energy and logistics markets are perhaps uniquely susceptible to regional events and tensions, with Qatar’s position as both a supplier and a geopolitical pressure point making this fragility more acute.

Had these tensions escalated, for example directly impacting Qatar’s LNG facilities or blocking Gulf shipping lanes, businesses would be dealing with a systemic crisis, not just higher costs. LNG flows to Europe and Asia would have been severely disrupted, electricity prices would have spiked and fuel shortages could have crippled road freight.

Rethinking the energy mix: bioLNG and HVO
The conventional response to these risks has been to diversify LNG supply, to buy from elsewhere, or invest in alternative routes or new regasification terminals. While this may reduce exposure to a single supplier, it does not address the underlying vulnerability. It merely replaces one dependency with another.

To achieve genuine resilience, the industry must look beyond the fossil model entirely. The opportunity now lies in scaling sustainable, waste-based renewable fuels such as bioLNG and hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO); fuels that can be produced domestically, used within existing logistics systems, and deployed immediately to decarbonise operations while reinforcing energy security.

BioLNG and HVO represent two of the most commercially and technically mature low-carbon alternatives available today. Unlike hydrogen or electric powertrains, which require substantial infrastructure development and vehicle redesign, these fuels are ‘drop-in’ solutions, compatible with existing diesel and LNG trucks, storage systems and refuelling networks.

BioLNG, produced from the anaerobic digestion of organic waste such as agricultural residues, food waste or sewage sludge, can deliver lifecycle greenhouse gas savings of more than 100% compared with fossil LNG. While HVO, derived from waste oils and fats, offers up to 90% of carbon reduction relative to conventional diesel.

Unlike hydrogen or electric powertrains, which require substantial infrastructure development and vehicle redesign, bioLNG andHVO are ‘drop-in’ solutions, compatible with existing diesel and LNG trucks, storage systems and refuelling networks.

Both fuels significantly cut particulate matter and nitrogen oxide emissions, improving air quality – which is becoming a growing regulatory and social priority in major transport corridors.

Their most strategic advantage, however, lies in fossil energy independence and diversity. Both bioLNG and HVO can be produced at scale within national borders or regional clusters. By shifting from imported hydrocarbons to locally sourced waste-based feedstocks, logistics firms can reduce exposure to maritime chokepoints, geopolitical risk and global commodity price swings.

This decentralised production model transforms waste into a strategic energy resource, creating a circular, resilient system less reliant on unstable global supply chains.

A balanced transition, not a binary choice
None of this is to dismiss the importance of electrification. Electric vehicles will play a vital role in decarbonising light and heavy-duty commercial road transport, particularly as battery density and charging infrastructure improve. But an electric-only strategy risks becoming both economically and operationally restrictive for heavy-duty, long-distance transport.

Heavy goods vehicles require high energy density, fast refuelling and long range – conditions under which bioLNG and HVO already perform well. By focusing exclusively on electrification, policymakers risk delaying emissions reductions that can be achieved now and ignoring the parallel priority of energy resilience. A balanced transition is the pragmatic route: electrification where feasible, renewable fuels where they are most effective.

Resilience through diversification
Building resilience means treating energy security as a core component of sustainability strategy. It requires logistics firms to diversify their fuel mix, explore multiple supply routes, and anticipate shocks through proactive scenario planning.

Integrating renewable fuels into fleets is not simply a green token gesture – rather it is a business continuity imperative. Each kilogramme or litre of bioLNG and HVO displaces imported fossil fuel, dampening exposure to price spikes and supply disruptions. At scale, such measures could stabilise entire national freight sectors against external energy shocks.

Moreover, the adoption of renewable fuels stimulates regional value creation. Domestic production of bioLNG and HVO supports rural economies, generates skilled jobs and creates markets for waste streams that would otherwise emit methane or require costly disposal.

The policy imperative
Despite these advantages, renewable fuels continue to be underestimated in European energy transition strategies. The European Commission remains wedded to a singular focus on decarbonisation at the tailpipe of the vehicle (electrification), often overlooking the role that biofuels can play as a bridging and complementary technology.

Policy frameworks that recognise only battery-electric solutions risk marginalising a suite of mature, scalable technologies that can deliver substantial emissions savings immediately. A more inclusive approach, one that rewards verified carbon reductions regardless of technology pathway, would accelerate progress.

However, forward-thinking logistics companies are no longer waiting for policy to correct course. Many are already integrating renewable fuels into mixed-energy fleets, testing hybrid models and signing long-term supply agreements with domestic biofuel producers.

The strategic pivot is clear: we need to scale renewable fuels such as bioLNG and HVO now, to ensure supply chains are insulated from geopolitical volatility and we make meaningful progress on decarbonisation targets.

The views and opinions expressed in this article are strictly those of the author only and are not necessarily given or endorsed by or on behalf of the Energy Institute.

• Further reading: ‘Big Oil bets on biofuels as part of energy transition’. The world’s leading oil and gas companies are ramping up investments in biofuels as they navigate the energy transition, with more than 40 projects planned by the end of the decade, according to Rystad Energy analysis.
• Discover more about the strong role that biofuels could play in hard-to-abate sectors like aviation and maritime.