So greenhouse gases (GHG) aren’t so harmful after all, at least those emitted in the US? Two weeks ago, the Trump administration proposed, as part of ‘the largest deregulatory action in the history of America’, revoking a 2009 federal declaration which determined that CO₂ and other GHGs endanger public health and welfare. The ‘endangerment rule’ was originally about harmful emissions from vehicle exhausts, but was extended under the Obama administration to also include power plants and factories. It essentially underpins a host of subsequent US climate regulations.

Possibly not for much longer, though. The proposal to end the arrangement has to go through a lengthy review process and possible legal challenges before being finalised, likely next year.

Trump had already withdrawn the US from the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change again – he also did it last time around. It was Paris that set a long-term goal to keep the rise in global surface temperatures well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and, preferably, to 1.5°C or less. The foundation of nearly all global efforts to limit global heating for the last decade, no less. And Trump is not alone in trying row back national clean energy policies.

Little surprise, then, in this emerging political climate, to learn that BP was happy to announce, a few days later, that it has made its largest oil and gas discovery for 25 years, offshore Brazil. This was BP’s tenth discovery so far this year, in countries from Namibia to Trinidad. The Brazil find is its largest discovery in 25 years, according to the oil major, and will become part of plans to grow its global upstream production to 2.3–2.5mn b/d of oil by 2030. Just one example of business-as-usual in this part of the fossil fuel industry. Or, in BP’s case better than that, as the find is ‘another success in what has been an exceptional year so far for our exploration team’.

The Trump administration proposed revoking a 2009 federal declaration which determined that CO₂ and other greenhouse gases endanger public health and welfare.

Compare these stories to the upbeat remarks made a couple of weeks earlier by Secretary-General of the United Nations, António Guterres, speaking on the welcome inevitability of supercharging the clean energy age: ‘Fossil fuels are running out of road and the sun is rising on a clean energy age.’

Guterres has a record of criticising the fossil fuel industry (‘polluters and profiteers’) and its efforts to keep pulling carbon out of the ground. This summer, he pointed to data from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) that says solar and wind power, far from being more expensive than fossil fuels as they used to be, are now cheaper. And: ‘Last year, every continent on Earth added more renewables capacity than fossil fuels.’

‘[A] clean energy future is no longer a promise. It’s a fact… We have passed the point of no return,’ he added. For three main reasons.

First, said Guterres, clean energy makes economic sense, while countries that cling to fossil fuels are sabotaging their economies. Second, renewables represent real energy security, compared to price shocks and supply disruptions with fossil fuels – there are no price spikes for sunlight. And third, renewables can be built (almost) anywhere on the planet, representing energy access for all. One could add a fourth reason – the prospect of accelerating climate change simply demands the transition, and fast.

But, despite the unstoppable trend, Guterres acknowledged that the transition is not fast – or fair – enough. The world needs bold new national climate plans from every country; a massive scale-up of power grids and energy storage; and future data centres 100% matched with renewable energy sources. On fairness, there must be equity, dignity and opportunities for all through new climate-supporting global trade and investment policies.

So, from Trump, the ultimate short-termist, dismantling progressive energy transition policies and their legal foundations on one side of the Atlantic, to the longer-term and more considered views from a former Prime Minister of Portugal on an inevitable global clean energy future – where do you stand on the spectrum? They cannot both be right.

It doesn’t seem appropriate – or helpful – to see the energy transition and climate change policies in the hands of dogmatic politicians. But in the last few years that’s where they have arrived – with at least one major country standing well outside the international consensus. Ideally, answers to climate questions should follow the science, as multilaterally agreed by global governments, most notably in Paris 10 years ago. With subsequent refinements.

Surely the time for debate and dissent on the basics has long passed and the time for action is long overdue.

Guterres concluded that climate change is an existential question for the planet. Governments must stop sending mixed messages – bold renewable targets one day; new fossil fuels support the next.

The views and opinions expressed in this article are strictly those of the author only and are not necessarily given or endorsed by or on behalf of the Energy Institute.

• Further reading: ‘Are we heading towards doom or making progress? What the latest EI Statistical Review reveals’. The Energy Institute’s Statistical Review of World Energy offers striking insights into global energy trends, drawn from a wealth of data collected over the past year. As EI Chief Executive Officer Nick Wayth pointed out at the launch event: ‘We are living through a period of immense transformation, but not in a linear or coordinated way.’
• 'COP28: We took a stand, now we need to act’. As the energy transition progresses at various speeds, Brazil is emerging as a clear forerunner in terms of renewable energy generation and biofuels production. Elbia Gannoum, Executive President of ABEEólica (Brazil’s wind association), Vice President of the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC), and a Council Member of CDESS (the Federal Government’s Council for Sustainable Economic and Social Development), presents her hopes for her country’s future following COP28.