This year’s EI Statistical Review is focused on 2024, throwing a fascinating spotlight on how the energy transition is progressing and revealing sharp contrast across regions, different fuels and the technologies deployed.

Produced by the Energy Institute in collaboration with Kearney, KPMG, Heriot Watt University and S&P Global as Knowledge Partner, the Statistical Review of World Energy offers a unique overview of world energy data. Doomscrollers will find food for thought, while there are also signs of progress, although the pace of transition still needs to accelerate significantly to meet COP28 goals.

Three central themes emerged from this year’s Review, said Wayth. Namely, the surge of global energy demand and production; the increasingly disordered energy transition; and the accelerating role of electricity.

The latest issue of the Statistical Review also introduces a new measure of total energy supply (TES) which has moved in line with the International Energy Agency (IEA), the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), BP and Eurostat. It replaces a primary energy consumption methodology, in which fossil fuel production, transportation and combustion losses were loaded on to non-combustion energy sources. (That does mean that the 2024 figures are not directly comparable with previous years’, although many tables go back 10 years.)

What’s the big picture?
‘Overlapping crises over the past five years, like the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, extreme weather due to climate change and renewed instability in the Middle East, exposed the fragility of global supply chains and the vulnerabilities of fossil fuel dependency,’ noted Wayth.

Indeed, he emphasised that the energy transition is no longer just about decarbonisation. ‘It’s also about resilience and independence, clean decentralised energy systems that reduce a country’s exposure to imported fuels, volatile markets and geopolitical risks.’

The appetite for energy continues to grow, ‘with demand shifting but not yet shrinking’. 2024 was a year for breaking records, as total energy demand rose by 2% to 592 exajoules (EJ). It was particularly pronounced in non-OECD countries, where demand grew 2.6%, while OECD demand rose only 0.5%.

Oil remained dominant, accounting for 34% of global demand, rising by 0.6% to break through 101mn b/d for the first time. Coal demand also hit a new record, reaching 165 EJ, with 83% of consumption centred around the Asia-Pacific, and China and India in particular. While at the same time natural gas demand climbed 2.5%, led by China but also bouncing back in Europe.

Overall, demand for fossil fuels still hangs in there, making up 86.6% of total energy demand, down only 0.5% from the previous year. ‘Were it not for the efficiency gains from non-combustible renewables, such as wind, solar PV, hydro and nuclear, global energy demand would have reached 636 EJ under the old methodology.’ Put another way, ‘had renewables, hydro and nuclear not been deployed, the global emissions would have been about 25% higher than they were, at 10 Gt of CO₂’, he explained.

Notably, ‘all major forms of energy hit all-time record highs in 2024: with record coal, record oil, record gas, record hydro and record nuclear [production]’. The last time this happened was in 2006, said Wayth.

Fossil fuels
First, there was a look at fossil fuel trends; and, in particular, was the world yet showing signs of breaking the fossil fuel habit? This year’s Statistical Review reveals that the world still has engrained fossil fuel habits. Global coal production reached a record high of 182 EJ, led by China and followed by India and Indonesia with 7% and 8% production increases respectively. Fortunately, Europe, southern and central America and the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) saw continued declines in coal, while the US recorded its lowest output for 44 years.

The big question remains: have we reached peak oil yet? Not yet, apparently. In 2024, global oil production rose 0.6%, with non-OPEC output accounting for 66% of growth. But there has been a swing in the compass, with US production reaching a record 22mn b/d for the first time, virtually equal to the combined outputs of Saudi Arabia and the Russian Federation. However, that feat may not be repeated, as ‘declining reservoirs and the ongoing focus of capital discipline by US E&P companies may turn out to be a high watermark’, said Wayth.

OECD demand remained flat at 45mn b/d whilst non-OECD demand grew slightly, by 700,000 b/d, with Africa and the Middle East growing fastest. Gasoline demand increased slightly, whilst global demand for fuel oil and diesel gas oil fell 2% and 0.5% respectively, due to efficiency gains and transport electrification. ‘The balance of increasing demand for petrochemicals, aviation and shipping will determine when we see a global peak,’ noted Wayth.

In terms of fossil fuel production, China has boosted oil output by more than 10% over the last five years. And global gas production rose 1.2% to pass 4,100bn m³ – slower than demand. The four largest producers – the US, Russian Federation, Iran and China – together accounted for over half of gas production. Meanwhile, European fossil fuel production fell 3.5%, as it faces continuing structural decline. Global demand for LNG also fell slightly.

‘All major forms of energy hit all-time record highs in 2024: with record coal, record oil, record gas, record hydro and record nuclear [production].’ – Nick Wayth FEI, Chief Executive Officer, Energy Institute

Renewables
Turning to renewables, and given the urgency of the energy transition, it was good to see that 2024 saw a record high for renewable generation, with new records for solar additions: solar grew nearly 28%, adding 455 TWh – 2.5 times higher than wind. Notably, solar additions amounted to 50% greater than coal and gas additions combined.

However, the EU saw a sharp decline in the growth rate of wind power, rising just 1.7% versus a 10-year average growth rate of 8%, due to a combination of technical, regulatory and economic challenges, including permitting bottlenecks and grid connection constraints.

Hydropower saw its biggest annual increase to 180 TWh since China’s Three Gorges dam reached full capacity in 2010, despite falls in North, South and Central America. 

At the same time, nuclear rose 3% to deliver 9% of global electricity generation – with around two thirds of increased output in France and Japan. Nevertheless, this rate of growth would still only deliver a doubling of nuclear capacity by 2050, not the tripling aspired to at COP28.

Emissions continue to climb
Concerns were also raised about continuing global emissions growth, which rose 1% last year to 40.8bn tonnes of CO₂ equivalent. Here again, the increase in emissions was led by China and India, which together were responsible for around 60% of the global rise. US and European emissions continued to decline. But methane emissions rose nearly 1%, led by the Asia-Pacific region, where China contributed two thirds of emissions. Emissions also rose in Africa.

‘This is not a clean handover from fossil fuels to renewables,’ remarked Wayth. ‘It is an energy addition, not an energy substitution… Some regions are cutting fossil use, while others are expanding it.’ Furthermore, ‘we are witnessing a disorderly shift, rather than a coordinated global effort’.

Wind and solar grew by 16% and made up over half of global electricity generation additions. Factoring in hydro, biomass, geothermal and nuclear, the combined low-carbon generation total exceeds 40%. But there are big regional differences; in Europe, 70% of electricity came from low-carbon sources. By contrast, in the Middle East and parts of Africa, fossil fuels still dominate the power mix, with renewables playing only a marginal role. The US sits somewhere in between, with around 14% coming from low-carbon sources.

Wayth concluded: ‘This year’s Review does not provide easy answers, but offers clear, unbiased data on where we stand, where we’re heading, and where policy action needs to be accelerated.’

• Further reading: ‘Research update on… electrification’. As the UK progresses towards its net zero targets, electrification is emerging as a vital pathway for industrial decarbonisation. The findings from the UK Industrial Decarbonisation Research and Innovation Centre’s (IDRIC) electrification projects highlight clear opportunities for decarbonising industrial processes but also expose critical gaps that must be addressed to enable widespread implementation.
• At London’s International Energy Week in February, speakers from the International Energy Agency, BP and Shell predicted a large increase in natural gas reaching global markets by the end of the decade. At the same time, they, and others, highlighted the importance of reducing methane emissions in producing those fossil-fuel projects.