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New Energy World magazine logo
ISSN 2753-7757 (Online)

North Sea oil and gas field developments delayed while third runway at Heathrow airport proposed: a week in the life of the UK energy transition

5/2/2025

News

View of Houses of Parliament, London Photo: Adobe Stock/Wieslaw
The UK government has committed to reducing the country’s greenhouse gas emissions by at least 81% by 2035 compared to 1990 levels, excluding international aviation and shipping emissions

Photo: Adobe Stock/Wieslaw

Two national-scale UK infrastructure developments made headlines last week for opposite reasons, at the same time as the country also filed one of the world’s first NDC climate change reports.

 

 

Scottish court ruling on North Sea oil and gas fields

First, a Scottish Court of Session ruled that government development consents for the Rosebank and Jackdaw oil and gas fields in the North Sea were ‘unlawful’. The Court found that the projects’ environmental impact assessments only accounted for direct Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions and did not consider Scope 3 emissions from the use of the extracted oil and gas after being sold.

 

The ruling requires the government to now consider the full environmental impact of the emissions from the fields and make a new decision on whether the projects can proceed. No oil and gas extraction is allowed during this period.

 

However, the new environmental assessments must await guidance from the UK government, which is expected sometime in the Spring.

 

The ruling was the first test of how the landmark UK Supreme Court ruling on Surrey County Council’s decision to grant permission for an onshore oil well near Gatwick Airport might be applied to offshore UK oil and gas developments. (In a separate case in the Hague, Netherlands, Shell won its appeal against a court order to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.)

 

Commenting on the Scottish Court ruling, Philip Evans, Senior Campaigner at Greenpeace UK, said: ‘Fossil fuels are an economic dead end. Now that the ball is back in the government’s court, ministers have the opportunity… to set out a new path for the North Sea, reaffirming their commitment to no new oil and gas, and prioritising clean energy.’

 

Rosebank is being developed by Equinor and Ithaca Energy; Jackdaw by Shell. Equinor said it was ‘pleased with the outcome, which allows us to continue progressing the Rosebank project while we await new consents’. Ithaca Energy added that Equinor ‘remain[s] confident that the project timeline remains on track, with the start-up still planned in 2026/2027’.

 

Shell commented: ‘Today’s ruling rightly allows work to progress on this nationally important energy project while new consents are sought.’ It added: ‘Swift action is needed from the government so that we and other North Sea operators can make decisions about vital UK energy infrastructure.’

 

Controversial Heathrow Airport expansion

Second, the UK government has backed a third runway at Heathrow Airport. Quoting an Airports Commission analysis, it estimates that the benefits to passengers and the wider economy would be up to £61bn over 60 years.

 

The government is also expected to make decisions regarding expansion plans at Gatwick and Luton Airports, and is supporting efforts to reopen Doncaster Sheffield Airport as a regional airport. Additionally, plans for London City Airport’s expansion to accommodate nine million passengers per year by 2031 and a £1.1bn investment at Stansted Airport have recently been approved.

 

Reeves highlighted the government’s plans for transitioning to greener aviation, including a £63mn investment in the Advanced Fuels Fund and the implementation of a revenue certainty mechanism. The UK’s Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Mandate came into law on 1 January 2025, providing further support for UK SAF producers.  

 

However, it should be noted that the global production of SAFs is very much in its infancy, at less than 1% of overall aviation fuel use. Given projections of rising aviation demand, even a growing SAF sector is unlikely to deal with emissions from air transport in the short, medium or long term. Indeed, responding to the government’s announcement, Colin Walker, Head of Transport at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), said that any suggestion that SAF will offset emissions from Heathrow’s expansion is ‘unrealistic’. He commented: ‘A third runway will increase emissions way beyond the capacity of these fuels to offset them.’

 

UK government confirms 2035 GHG emission targets in updated NDC submission

The day after, the UK government officially submitted its updated NDC (Nationally Determined Contribution) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This latest NDC commits to reducing the country’s GHG emissions by at least 81% by 2035 compared to 1990 levels, excluding international aviation and shipping emissions. The target to reduce GHG emissions by at least 68% by 2030, as outlined in the UK’s first NDC, remains in place.

 

The latest NDC covering the period 2031–2035 joins four others submitted ahead of the 10 February 2025 deadline. As of 27 January, only the US, Brazil, Uruguay and the United Arab Emirates, had submitted their updated NDCs, according to the International Institute for Environment and Development. However, the US has since announced its intention to withdraw from the Paris Agreement under Donald Trump’s Presidency.

 

Informed by the outcomes of the COP28 Global Stocktake (GST), the UK’s NDC aligns with the recommendations of the government’s climate advisory body, the Climate Change Committee (CCC), which says the 81% emissions reduction target is a credible contribution towards limiting warming to 1.5°C. The target is also in line with the UK’s legally binding Carbon Budget 6 (which includes international aviation and shipping emissions).  

 

The NDC does not include sector-specific targets, which are not mandatory under international agreements. However, in a bid to help fill what could be seen as a potential gap in accountability, the government says it will produce an updated cross-economy plan that will outline the policies needed to deliver Carbon Budgets 4 to 6 as well as the 2030 and 2035 NDCs on the way to net zero in 2050.

 

Government projected to miss revised clean power 2030 targets by 32 GW

In related news, a forecast from Cornwall Insight suggests that the UK government will miss its Clean Power 2030 Action Plan targets for offshore and onshore wind, and solar PV, by a combined 32 GW. Solar PV is expected to have the largest shortfall at 16 GW, reaching 29 GW compared to the 45–47 GW government target. However, this still represents a 70% increase from the 17 GW installed today, notes the market analyst.

 

Onshore wind is projected to fall 10 GW short of the 27–29 GW goal, hindered by planning issues. Offshore wind is closest to meeting its target, falling just 6 GW short of the 43–50 GW goal, despite cost inflation challenges.

 

The growing energy demand from data centres, driven by the government’s push to expand AI capabilities, underscores the urgency of investing in renewable energy. Without sufficient capacity, the UK grid risks falling back on fossil fuels, jeopardising decarbonisation goals, warns Cornwall Insight.

 

It also highlights uncertainty around the Review of Electricity Market Arrangements (REMA), particularly the potential move away from national wholesale pricing. These reforms would require significant regulatory changes, and without clear guidance, developers are hesitant to invest, threatening the achievement of the UK’s clean power targets, it says.

 

However, while the forecasts suggests that the 2030 target may not be met, the anticipated buildout from current operational capacity is expected to put the electricity sector on track to achieve net zero emissions within the next decade, ahead of the net zero by 2050 goal, concludes Cornwall Insight.