The new analysis by environmental campaign group T&E predicts that aircraft will burn 59% more fuel (fossil kerosene and its two alternatives: biofuels and synthetic e-fuels produced using renewable electricity) in 2050 than in 2019, despite improvements in efficiency. It forecasts that, in 2050, planes taking off from EU airports will still burn 21.1mn tonnes of fossil kerosene, a yearly extraction of 1.9bn barrels of crude oil (based on EU refineries’ average yield of 9% in 2022).

Increasingly, planes will use sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) as alternatives to fossil kerosene. However, due to exponential growth, in 2049 the sector could be burning as much fossil kerosene as it did in 2023, even when using 42% of SAF, as required by the EU’s law on green fuels, T&E predicts.  

‘Whilst e-fuels are much more sustainable and scalable than biofuels, they won’t be able to keep up with this rapidly growing sector,’ says T&E. The EU’s ReFuelEU Aviation law promotes the increased use of SAF, calling for a 35% blend of e-fuels by 2050. ‘If industry growth projections materialise this would translate into 24.2mn tonnes of e-kerosene. But as e-fuels require a lot of energy to produce, the energy needs for Europe’s aviation industry would be higher than Germany’s total electricity demand in 2023 (506 TWh).’

T&E’s study suggests that, by 2050, European aviation could be using 24.2mn tonnes of bio-kerosene. But, 4 out of every 5 litres of this could be derived from feedstocks that are not truly sustainable, it claims.

Whilst some industry actors argue that the lack of availability of SAFs limits emissions reduction in the sector, T&E contends that, at this level of growth, the benefits of SAF will be cancelled out. SAFs are only a viable solution without exponentially growing levels of traffic, it says.

Under the Airbus and Boeing growth scenarios, by 2049 European aviation emissions will only be 3% lower than in 2019. And in 2050, when the EU pledged to have reached net zero greenhouse gas emissions, the sector will still emit 79mn tCO₂, says T&E. At this rate, Europe’s aviation sector will deplete its carbon budget by 2026, suggests the analysis.

The European Commission has set out a plan to reduce its emissions by 90% by 2040 compared to 1990. All sectors, including aviation, will need to address their climate impact. Using figures from the European Commission’s impact assessment, T&E finds an average yearly growth of 1.4% between 2023 and 2050 – 60% lower than the Airbus and Boeing growth projections. Even this lower growth projection will result in a 46% increase in emissions by 2040, compared to 1990, nowhere close enough to achieve net zero, suggests the analysis.  

T&E is calling for the European Commission to ‘present proposals to put an end to airport infrastructure growth in Europe, to keep corporate travel at 50% of 2019 levels, to address frequent flying and to reverse the under-taxation of the sector’. Without such measures, and if Airbus and Boeing’s forecasts materialise, it estimates that, at European level, an additional 960mn tCO₂ could be emitted between 2023 and 2050 compared with the European Commission’s modelling.

SAF takes flight with £14.7bn global investment

Meanwhile, new analysis produced by Innovate UK Business Connect has revealed how private investment and national commitments are driving global growth for SAF, with a total of £14.7bn invested in SAF projects worldwide.  

Ranked fourth globally for total SAF investment, the UK has secured £180mn in private investment, drawing finance from the US, Saudi Arabia and Canada. There are 10 planned SAF plants in the country (see New Energy World’s profile of Alfanar’s Teeside Lighthouse Green Fuels project published last year). Investors are financing a range of technology pathways with power-to-liquids (PtL), Fischer-Tropsch (FT) and alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) dominating.

Government policies have been supporting this growth in the UK. This includes the introduction of the SAF mandate, which launched on 1 January 2025, targeting a 10% blend in the aviation fuel mix by 2030. The UK government is also set to implement a Revenue Certainty Mechanism in 2026 to address the technological risks associated with non-HEFA (hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids) based SAF plants.