Cooling is about much more than thermal comfort, although that is important enough. Cooling is also about the resilience of our food systems and keeping food fresh and accessible through the cold chain. It’s about reversing the trend of poorly designed buildings and cities. It’s about health; cooling is essential to protect people from extreme heat and to keep vaccines viable.

It’s about the energy transition – cooling is a top driver of peak power demand, in some countries up to 50%, constraining our grids and causing blackouts. It’s also about prosperity – enabling us to work and learn in healthy, safe environments. Cooling is at its core a ‘just transition’ issue. Not only are the poorest and most vulnerable most exposed to climate impacts, but they are least likely to have access to the cooling they need as the world warms.

In many countries, air conditioning and green spaces are luxuries that only the wealthy can afford. Some 1.2 billion people are at high risk due to a lack of cooling, with women being disproportionately affected. We must rapidly increase access to cooling, but we must do so without further warming the planet.

How significant is cooling for future energy demand?
Cooling is the second largest driver of electricity demand after industry, currently accounting for 20% of electricity consumption globally, according to the UN Environment Programme’s (UNEP) Global Cooling Watch 2023 report. Following current trends, the capacity of cooling equipment is expected to triple by 2050 – rising from 22 TW in 2022 to 58 TW in 2050 – the equivalent of 16 billion mini-split air conditioning units. This would result in a more than doubling of electricity consumption.

This growth in cooling will require large investments in electricity generation and distribution infrastructure, placing additional strain on energy systems. The increased demand for cooling power often results in power failures and rolling blackouts. Heatwaves also reduce water available in dams and hydro-electricity production.

This surge in cooling demand will lead to a significant rise in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from power consumption, alongside leakage of refrigerant gases from cooling equipment, most of which have a much higher global warming potential than CO₂. Total emissions from cooling are predicted to increase by up to 6.1bn tCO₂e in 2050, accounting for more than 10% of global projected emissions that year. Given the existing reliance on fossil fuels, without a strong and urgent transition to renewable energy sources, this will further worsen GHG trends.

This makes cooling a big climate and energy issue, and a growing one. Thankfully the latest science from UNEP charts a path on how we can expand cooling while slashing emissions.

This surge in cooling demand will lead to a significant rise in greenhouse gas emissions from power consumption, alongside leakage of refrigerant gases from cooling equipment, most of which have a much higher global warming potential than CO₂.

How can we reduce emissions from cooling?
UNEP’s Global Cooling Watch 2023 report: Keeping it Chill: How to meet cooling demands while cutting emissions, a collective effort of the UNEP-led Cool Coalition, shows how key measures could reduce cooling emissions by 60% – 3.8bn tonnes of CO₂e – by 2050, while making it possible for an additional 3.5 billion people to benefit from refrigerators, air conditioners or passive cooling by 2050. This would save end-users up to $1tn annually and reduce global peak power demand by up to 2 TW – almost double the European Union’s current generation capacity – avoiding substantial power generation investments.

To deliver benefits, action is needed in three areas.

• Passive cooling: non-mechanical cooling methods such as nature-based solutions, ventilation, insulation, shading, reflective surfaces, urban design and smart buildings, can significantly curb the growth in demand for cooling capacity in 2050. 
• Higher energy efficiency standards: updating and enforcing minimum energy performance standards and labelling for cooling equipment can drive the market toward more efficient technologies.
• Phase-down of climate-warming refrigerants: fast action on the transition away from hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) as mandated in the Kigali Amendment is vital.

What is the Global Cooling Pledge?
The untapped urgency and opportunity of cooling led the COP28 President to launch the Global Cooling Pledge – a joint initiative with the UNEP-led Cool Coalition – together with over 70 countries and 60 non-state actors. The Pledge marks the world’s first collective effort to reduce cooling related emissions by over 60% and increase access to sustainable cooling by 2030.

Re-affirming their commitment, the G7 countries pledged in April this year to ‘maintain a high level of ambition to systematically implement the Global Cooling Pledge’. Building on this momentum, more recently the UN Secretary-General has urged all stakeholders to take immediate action on cooling in line with the Global Cooling Pledge at COP28 in response to rising temperatures.

The Pledge includes targets to increase passive cooling, nature-based solutions and improved design in buildings and for cities; to develop national cooling action plans which can set the energy baseline for cooling and reflect it in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs); and to use the powers of public procurement to transform the market.

It encourages technological innovation to improve renewable energy and energy efficiency in cooling. Most importantly it offers a path for governments, states and cities to follow as they take action with industry to increase passive cooling, drive better efficiency in cooling systems and slash HFCs together with a community of like-minded countries.

The opportunity in front of us is huge. Delivering on the Global Cooling Pledge could cut emissions by around 78bn tonnes by 2050 while protecting billions of people from the impacts of extreme heat.

The UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2023, Broken Record – Temperatures hit new highs, yet world fails to cut emissions (again), finds that full implementation of the would limit temperature rise to 2.5–2.9°C rise, unless countries exceed their 2030 pledges. Countries have a unique and timely opportunity with the upcoming NDC submissions, due by early 2025, to prioritise sustainable cooling solutions for mitigation and adaptation/resilience. Already, 71 Global Cooling Pledge signatories have agreed to do so in this round.

In short, taking action now on cooling is critical if we want to keep 1.5°C temperature increase limit within reach.

The views and opinions expressed in this article are strictly those of the author only and are not necessarily given or endorsed by or on behalf of the Energy Institute.

• Further reading: ‘How Europe’s cooling problem is heating up’. As Europe experiences another sweltering summer, policymakers need to pay closer attention to the growing need for space cooling. Find out how Europe is looking to address its rising need for cooling down in a sustainable way without further straining the region’s electricity grids.
• Global energy demand for cooling in a warming world is surely bound to increase in coming years. How can that increase be kept within limits?