Three of the region’s five countries – Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan – are rich in oil and natural gas, so are actively exploiting these deposits, for which demand remains high as trading partners transition to green energy. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are abundant in water resources as they sit on the upper reaches of the region’s two main rivers – the Amu Darya and Syr Darya – and generate extensive hydropower as a result.

What all five countries have in common is their significant potential to harness solar and wind power, however, given above average sunlight hours and strong latent wind speeds. These resources need to be tapped, given economic and population growth within Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan driving up energy demand faster than supply – causing some shortages.

Tajikistan, which mainly depends on hydropower, is a net exporter of power and coal, while Turkmenistan, which sits on the world’s fourth largest gas reserves, is an exporter of power and gas. Kyrgyzstan, heavily dependent on hydropower, imports almost all its oil, gas and petroleum needs. Kazakhstan, the region’s largest energy producer, nonetheless has faced gas and electricity shortages; and Uzbekistan, the second-largest gas producer in the region, has faced shortages of gas, plus oil and power.

Map of Central Asia 
Source: Cacahuate for Wikivoyage

Current country profiles  
Tajikistan  
Of the 22 TWh of electricity generated in Tajikistan in 2023, 95% came from hydropower and the rest from thermal power plants and minor solar farms. The country exported about 4.5% of its power to neighbouring countries.

With proven oil reserves of 2.5mn tonnes, Tajikistan produced only 18,000 tonnes of oil last year (2023) but imported more than 1.4mn tonnes of petroleum products and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), mostly from Russia last year, up 13% from 2022, according to Russian state-owned news agency Sputnik News. Tajikistan is self-sufficient in coal, mostly used by thermal power plants and domestic heat, producing over 2.5mn tonnes annually.

Turkmenistan  
Turkmenistan produced 80.1bn m³ of gas and 8.3mn tonnes of oil in 2023, exporting about 35bn m³ of gas to China and 5bn m³ to other neighbouring countries, according to Turkmenistan information service Turkmenportal. Moreover, its government said last August that it supported building a trans-Caspian pipeline to significantly increase gas exports to Europe.

Turkmenistan’s official economic figures are unreliable, but according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the country increased exports of electricity by 30% year-on-year to about 9 TWh in 2022. Almost all power generation comes from fossil fuels.

Kyrgyzstan  
Kyrgyzstan produced over 4mn tonnes of coal, 300,000 tonnes of oil and 27.5mn m³ of gas in 2023, despite relying on fossil fuel imports. Power generation stood at 13 TWh in 2023 and the country imported 3.2 TWh of electricity, up from net imports of 2.3 TWh in 2022. The country’s electricity imports are expected to reach 3.5 TWh in 2024, according to a report published by the Kyrgyz news agency.

Uzbekistan  
Uzbekistan’s oil and gas condensate output has been falling since 2020, as has gas production: from 2.16mn tonnes in 2020 to 1.97mn tonnes in 2023, and 53.8bn m³ in 2021 to 46.7bn m³ in 2023, respectively, according to the Uzbekistan Statistics Agency. Coal output, used for power generation along with gas, increased from 4.13mn tonnes in 2020 to 6.2mn tonnes in 2024. Uzbekistan’s power generation increased from 66 TWh in 2020 to 77 TWh in 2023, with the country building more coal-fired power plants.

Although the Uzbekistan Statistics Agency does not publish figures for electricity imports and exports in physical volumes, net imports of electricity in monetary terms stood at $44.6mn in 2023 and $45.1mn in 2022.

Uzbekistan’s oil and gas fields are depleting fast and replacement fields cannot bridge the gap between production and consumption. The country started importing gas from Russia under a two-year 2.8bn m³/y contract last October (2023) and the government has allocated $1.5bn to modernise the country’s pipelines and gas storage facilities to increase imports of Russian gas to 12bn m³/y by 2030. It has also agreed with Turkmenistan to import at least 2bn m³ of gas a year.

The country also intends to import 550,000 tonnes of Russian oil in 2024, 50,000 tonnes more than initially planned. The transit of Russian oil to Uzbekistan increased to 154,300 tonnes in 2023, up from 35,800 tonnes in 2018 and 67,900 tonnes in 2017. Uzbekistan did not import Russian oil from 2019–2022.

Kazakhstan  
Kazakhstan is self-sufficient in oil, coal and gas, but a switch by the industry and the population from coal to gas is threatening near future gas shortages. The country’s domestic gas consumption grew from 13.8bn m³ in 2017 to 19.7bn m³ in 2022, while output fell from 33.4bn m³ to 27.8bn m³ in the same period. The government estimates the domestic consumption will grow further to 25.7bn m³ in 2025 and to 30.2bn m³ in 2030.

Kazakhstan is considering building a gas pipeline network in the country’s north to source gas from Russia. Its electricity consumption stood at 115 TWh in 2023, while generation was 113 TWh and net imports were 2 TWh. Renewables generated 6.7 TWh, including solar (1.9 TWh) and wind (3.8 TWh).

Development prospects  
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan aim to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, and Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan by 2050, while Turkmenistan has not yet set this goal.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said such policies are important, as climate change-related shocks threaten growth prospects across Central Asia and represent a key source of socioeconomic risk, so measures combining climate mitigation and more sustainable growth are important.

The IMF has advised oil and gas producers Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan to transition towards more diverse and greener sources of power generation, notably by eliminating energy subsidies.

‘It’s hard to replace a coal-based system overnight and it will take time to develop alternatives. The regional countries have plans and strategies now, which is good. I think they are moving in the right direction, but the question is the pace of change,’ said Nicolas Blancher, Assistant Director of the IMF’s department for the Middle East and Central Asia. ‘Commitments are strong, and they are increasing the tariffs [consumer prices] but is that sufficient? Maybe more decisive action is necessary to meet those targets,’ he told New Energy World, noting that Central Asian countries have among the lowest charges for electricity, fuel and petrol worldwide.

There is vast potential to develop wind and solar power. Kazakhstan could harness 920 TWh of wind power annually, while in its southern regions, sunshine averages 2,200–3,000 hours per year, said the Kazakh government. The Uzbek government claims its country’s combined potential for renewables is 2,091 TWh/y. Kyrgyzstan’s combined potential is estimated at 289 TWh/y, while Tajikistan’s is 1,700 TWh/y, according to national government estimates.

Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan also are keen on developing hydropower. The Tajik government hopes to complete a 3,600 MW Rogun hydropower station, on the Vakhsh River, southern Tajikistan, but has struggled to attract foreign investors as its ballooning costs are now estimated at $6bn.

Similarly, Kyrgyzstan wants to complete the 1,860 MW Kambarata-1 hydropower station on the Naryn river, costing $2.9bn. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are to contribute to the project and hence influence its management and discharge, to protect their water supplies.

The latter two countries are also major uranium producers, and so are mulling building new nuclear power plants. Environmental safety and costs are of public concern in Kazakhstan, which has promised a referendum on any solid proposals on a planned 2,400 GW plant. Uzbekistan has opted to build a 2,400 GW plant with Russia’s Rosatom agency by 2030.

Kazakhstan plans to build three thermal fossil fuel-fired power plants serving its northern and eastern urban centres. ‘Thermal power plants also need to produce heating, especially in cities where high rise blocks of flats are centrally heated,’ explained Timur Shalabayev, Executive Director of the Solar Power Association of Qazaqstan (SPAQ) (Kazakhstan). He called for a change of direction: ‘Potentially, central heating could be done via renewables,’ he told New Energy World.

Both countries have embarked on massive renewables programmes though. Kazakhstan has increased its capacity 1,500% to 2.9 GW between 2014 and 2023, while Uzbekistan started building renewables generation capacity in 2021. Kazakhstan aims to generate 6% of its power from renewables by 2025, 15% by 2030 and 50% by 2050 (see Tables 1 and 2), while Uzbekistan plans to produce 25% of power from renewables by 2030.

Kazakhstan plans six major renewables projects generating 6 GW in total by 2030, adding to current installed renewables capacity of 24.5 GW; Uzbekistan plans to build additional renewables capacity totalling 10 GW by 2030 (up from 13.1 GW today), including 5 GW of solar and 3 GW of wind.

To entice investors, Kazakhstan is offering guaranteed minimum prices to buy power from renewables operators via online auctions, while Uzbekistan is exempting renewable power producers from property tax and land tax for 10 years.

Shalabayev said auctions are a transparent mechanism where investors offer to build generation capacities at their tariffs and the lowest tariff wins, with Kazakhstan hoping these sales will finance 6.8 GW renewables generation by 2032, above the direct contract projects.

That said, Central Asian fossil fuel exports will remain enticing, according to John Roberts, a UK-based energy consultant and Senior Fellow with the Washington DC-based Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center. He added: ‘Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are very dependent on fossil exports for both GDP growth and budget revenues.’ Kazakhstan exports about 80% of its oil.

However, it might boost sustainability by replacing coal – still accounting for 70% of power generation – with renewables. ‘The most important issue is whether Kazakhstan can harness solar and wind power to replace coal,’ said Roberts.

Methane emissions  
Methane releases from Turkmen gas fields also remain a major environmental problem. This is also a problem for Kazakhstan, where the Karaturun Left oil field released 127,000 tonnes of methane between August 2023 and February 2024 because of a major fire, according to media reports.

While Kazakhstan reinjects most of its concomitant gas back into the oil fields to maintain reservoir pressure, methane emissions from Turkmen gas fields are high, Roberts warns, advising operators to ‘stop flaring completely as they do flare off a lot of gas’. In a sign of progress, the country signed a Global Methane Pledge in December 2023 to cut emissions by 30%, a UN source who participated in talks with Turkmenistan said, on condition of anonymity.

Meanwhile, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are both interested in producing green hydrogen for export markets.

Last year, Sweden-based renewable energy company Svevind announced plans to build a $50bn, 40 GW renewables capacity plant, producing 2mn tonnes of green hydrogen a year, in Kazakhstan’s western Caspian region of Mangistau. However, Shalabayev questioned the project’s feasibility, noting the most advanced technology today produces 1 kg of hydrogen using nine litres of water and 50 kWh of power. This means 2mn tonnes of hydrogen would require at least 18mn tonnes of fresh water in a region where water is scarce.

Roberts of the Atlantic Council says that the limiting factor is not producing hydrogen but exporting it to customer markets, most likely Germany. ‘You need to create infrastructure in landlocked Kazakhstan… What is important is how it develops exports routes, given Russia is waging war in Ukraine,’ he concluded.

Table 1: Planned direct contract renewables projects in Kazakhstan to 2030, by developer
Source: The Kazakhstan Electricity and Power Market Operator JSC (KOREM JSC)

Table 2: Renewables project contracts awarded in Kazakhstan based on 2022–2023 auctions (tariffs auctioned in Kazakhstan tenge, converted to US dollars at KZT450=$1)
Source: The Kazakhstan Electricity and Power Market Operator JSC (KOREM JSC) 

• To find more energy statistics for Caspian states including Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, go to the Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy.
• Further reading: ‘Prospects for Caspian brighten as Europe rejects Russian gas’. Tim Crawford reports on how Europe’s push to end reliance on Russian gas opened up new possibilities for suppliers from the Caspian region.   
   

UPDATED 22 MARCH 2024 08:45: Corrected the 2023 gas production of Turkmenistan, which because of an editing error was incorrectly stated as 801bn m³, 10 times larger than in reality.