‘Fossil fuel heating has not a very long lifetime left,’ the Director of European Programmes for the Regulatory Assistance Project, Dr Jan Rosenow, recently warned. He continued: ‘If the British government shows commitment to heat pumps, the costs will come down.’

In the UK, heat pumps sales are growing, but at a slower rate than all the other European countries that EHPA gathers data for. Around 43,000 heat pumps were sold in the UK in 2021, which is an increase on the previous year, but still far less than small countries such as Estonia, Denmark and the Netherlands, and larger ones like France and Germany.

Growth of the European heat pump market 
Overall, last year, heat pump sales grew by 34% in Europe to an all-time high. Some 2.18mn units were sold in the 21 European countries that EHPA has numbers for, with UK sales representing 0.02% of the total.

This brings the total number of installed heat pumps in the European Union (EU) to 16.98mn, covering around 14% of the heating market. The heat pumps now installed in the EU avoid over 44mn tonnes of CO₂ each year – slightly more than the annual emissions of Ireland – with the heating sector overall producing around 1,000mn t/y.

The five biggest European heat pump markets in terms of units sold (heat pumps and hot water units) in 2021 were France (537,000 units sold, +36%), Italy (382,000, +64%) and Germany (177,000, +26%). Together, these three countries account for half of last year’s European sales – followed by Spain (148,000, +16%) and Sweden (135,000, +19%).

The strongest relative gains for heating heat pumps last year were achieved in Poland (an increase of 87%), Ireland (+69%), Italy (+63%), Slovakia (+42%), Norway, France (each +36%) and Germany (+28%).

This record growth in 2021 is part of a major shift to sustainable heating. We are seeing a triple whammy of effects. First, EU policy is driving governments in those countries to decarbonise the building sector; second, heat pump technology has made massive progress, making heat pumps much more cost efficient; and third, a positive side effect of the COVID-19 pandemic has made many citizens realise that they must upgrade their homes.

Russia, Ukraine and heat pumps 
Of recent significance, but logically without any bearing on last year’s numbers, is the terrible war waged by Russia on Ukraine since February 2022. This has highlighted to decision makers and citizens alike the folly of depending on fossil fuel imports for heating – a point made even more acute as gas prices spiral ever higher, leaving many people facing an unacceptable choice between heating or eating. We will have a clearer picture of the impact of the war on people’s heating choices in the coming weeks, as we gather the data from our national heat pump association members.

The immediate reaction of the EU to the Russian invasion was to seek to drastically reduce the bloc’s reliance on gas imports. To do this it published a statement of its intent to cut Russian gas imports by two thirds in 2022 by a variety of measures. These included by massively increasing the number of hydronic heat pumps – meaning those which heat water – to 30mn by 2030. EHPA calculated that this would double the overall EU market when air-based heat pumps were included. This took the total target to an additional 20mn heat pumps by 2026 and 60mn by 2030, up from about 17mn units at the end of 2021.

The European Commission (EC) followed up the statement with a set of more concrete measures in May 2022, known as the ‘REPowerEU’ package. REPowerEU reiterated the crucial role of heat pumps in getting off fossil gas and referred to other measures such as ramping up equipment production for heat pumps, facilitating the sector’s access to finance, and focusing on education and training in a range of skills from plumbing to architects.

The EC wants to change other rules that will help the targets be reached, including tougher energy performance requirements on buildings and tougher energy efficiency requirements on heating systems. The latter should see an end to ‘stand-alone’ fossil fuel boilers by 2029.

Despite this, the EC did not set forth a comprehensive way to bring these elements together. What is missing, in the view of the European heat pump sector, is an action plan – a ‘heat pump accelerator’ – to help the sector deliver on the targets, just as the solar power sector has done.  

Five crucial goals of the accelerator 
First, the accelerator should focus on creating trust in long-term ambition for heat pumps. This means clearly spelling out at the EU and national government level that they are a key technology for a climate-neutral Europe. It also means addressing supply chain bottlenecks, such as the shortage of semiconductors which are vital for heat pump production.

Second, an accelerator means making clean heating the financially most attractive choice. Governments should stop subsidising fossil fuel boilers and help everyone have access to a heat pump. They should internalise the external effects of fossil fuel use through carbon prices, make electricity the least taxed energy carrier, and help everyone have access to a heat pump system – for example by setting up one-stop-shops.

Third, ensuring policy helps and does not hinder the market is central to the goals of the accelerator. EU laws should not disrupt a growing technology but instead push it forward through greater climate and energy ambition. All legislation on heat pumps should contribute to the REPowerEU goals.

Fourth, it should boost skills for the energy transition. Training programmes should be put in place so there are enough workers for every part of the heat pump process, from manufacturing to installation.

The fifth and final goal is to support R&D to allow the sector to ensure a cost-efficient and effective solution for every type of building, climate and need, and to continue the development of industrial heat pumps. This includes smoothing access to the heat pump innovation and manufacturing funding options announced under REPowerEU.

EHPA infographic showing what the accelerator should look like
Source: EHPA/Doug Dawson

In terms of what form the accelerator should take, the EU heat pump sector is calling for something more than a strategy. It sees an initiative which brings everyone with an interest in the sector to the table with the relevant policy makers, to discuss legislation which prioritises heat pump development and best practice examples from member states.

This should be complemented by a heat pump summit with the European Commissioners concerned, followed by annual stocktaking meetings of the heat pump market development and the efforts made so far.

Creating the EU heat pump accelerator plan 
In order to develop the details of the accelerator further, EHPA is inviting anyone interested to let it know and join in a process of co-creation. Building this accelerator together was the focus of EHPA’s recent annual heat pump forum. Participants from manufacturers, thinktanks, policy institutions, all joined in the call for such a plan, to speed up the path towards the EU’s REPowerEU targets.

The European heat pump sector is in a prime position to help citizens get off fossil fuels and move to secure, clean, affordable heating. But it cannot ramp up as massively as the EC wants without some additional hands on deck. That is why the accelerator is the number one message we are bringing to policy-makers, and why we are explaining what we mean in as clear a way as possible through images, infographics and on social media.

The UK, too, can and must be part of the huge ramp-up in heat pump deployment; its citizens, industries and businesses deserve it. The entire planet is impacted by climate change and by rampant fossil energy prices, and we must do everything we can. For the European heat pump sector, the answer is clear: we are ready to deliver. With some targeted policy, finance and training support, we can bring affordable, sustainable heating to all end-users.