Developing countries could receive less than a third of the funding they need to adapt to climate change, even if a COP30 goal to triple adaptation finance by 2035 is met, according to new UN analysis published ahead of COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye, this month.

Adaptation finance helps developing countries respond to climate change, funding measures such as flood defences, drought protection and other climate-resilient infrastructure.

Meanwhile, new research from the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) reveals that members of the Clean Energy Transition Partnership (CETP) have cut public funding for overseas fossil fuel projects by up to 80% but have increased clean energy funding by less than half the amount they cut from fossil fuel projects.

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) estimates in its Adaptation gap report 2026 that developing countries will need around $305bn annually by 2035 to respond to climate change. Yet international public adaptation finance from developed countries reached just $28.2bn to $31.7bn in 2024, an increase of only $1bn on the previous year.

At the last COP, governments called for a tripling of adaptation finance by 2035. Depending on the baseline used, this would increase annual funding to between $85bn and $120bn annually. However, UNEP calculates that even if this goal is achieved, the additional finance would cover just 20–29% of developing countries’ needs, after adjusting for inflation.

The report also warns that its $305bn estimate largely excludes the private sector’s own adaptation requirements, which could almost double the total.

Even with increased funding from developed countries, UNEP warns that recipient countries often lack the institutions and policies to plan adaptation measures, secure financing and deliver projects.

Commenting on the report’s publication, UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen warned that the finance goal set at COP30 would still fall short of developing countries’ needs. She said: ‘At climate COP31 in Türkiye and beyond, nations must focus on intensifying efforts to achieve the COP30 Global Mutirão aspiration of tripling adaptation finance by 2035 – while understanding that they will need to go even higher to save lives, avoid losses and damages and protect economies.’

The shortfall in adaptation finance comes as separate research reveals that governments have sharply reduced financial support for overseas fossil fuel projects, without increasing clean energy funding by anything like the same amount.

A report by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), Oil Change International and Friends of the Earth US finds that despite CETP members cutting international public finance for fossil fuel projects by up to 80% since 2019 and 2021, increases in clean energy finance are just 42% of the reduction in fossil fuel funding.

Established at Glasgow’s COP26 in 2021, CETP brings together 40 countries and institutions that agreed to end direct international public finance for unabated fossil fuel projects and prioritise clean energy instead. This support includes loans, export credit guarantees and insurance to help finance overseas energy developments.

The two reports put renewed scrutiny on international climate finance ahead of COP31, particularly the funding available to developing countries. They need substantially more funding to adapt to climate change, while governments that have reduced financial support for overseas fossil fuel projects are under pressure to increase clean energy investment.

Commenting on the IISD report, Natalie Jones, Senior Policy Advisor at IISD, called for greater clean energy finance for emerging and developing economies. She said: ‘COP 31’s climate-finance discussions, including the Veredas Dialogue, must build on this progress and scale up clean energy finance on fair terms for emerging and developing economies.’