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UK predicts sufficient gas for winter, but transatlantic trade remains vexed
3/11/2026
News
A report from National Gas predicts that the UK will be able to meet winter 2026/2027 demand. Forecast peak demand is expected to reach 493mn m3/d, while total supply capability is assessed at 592mn m3/d. (By contrast, average daily demand is predicted to be 246mn m3/d).
Compared with last year, LNG imports are predicted to rise by 5% to 12.3bn m3, which National Gas says is to offset declines from the UK Continental Shelf, which is expected to fall by a similar rate and absolute amount.
Ian Radley, Chief Commercial Officer at National Gas, said: ‘This year’s winter outlook shows that while Britain’s energy system continues to undergo significant change, gas remains essential to our everyday lives, heating 24 million homes, powering vital industries and keeping the lights on when the wind doesn’t blow and sun doesn’t shine.’
‘While overall gas demand is expected to fall over time, peak demand is expected to marginally increase this winter and remain broadly unchanged for many years to come. At the same time, as domestic production continues to decline, Britain is becoming increasingly reliant on imported gas and other flexible sources of supply. Taken together, these factors underline the imperative of maintaining Britain’s energy security in an increasingly evolving and uncertain landscape.’
Across the Channel, gas supplies in the European Union were at three-quarters of full capacity on 21 October, according to a report by EU energy regulatory federation the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER). It said that the EU will enter the winter with lower overall storage levels than the nine-year average.
It blamed disruptions to LNG flows linked to the conflict in the Middle East, low gas storage levels after winter 2025–2026 and slower refilling.
It also said that refilling prices have risen. The upper bound estimated cost of refilling storage in 2026 reached €27bn, while the average cost of injected gas was the second highest in the past decade, according to ACER.
Because Europe is competing for LNG in a tighter global market, prices are rising. Spot EU hub prices closed to near €90/MWh mid-October 2026. ACER estimated that the Middle East conflict added an estimated €18–33bn to Europe’s gas import bill for the same quantity of gas, costs which are spread across the gas value chain. US LNG now accounts for around 30% of total EU gas supply, and total Russian gas around 11%, it said.
Blaming the adverse geopolitical conditions, the European Commission has proposed delaying the application of new rules on gas imports as part of the EU Methane Regulation (EUMR) by a year. These rules create additional monitoring, reporting and verification obligations for natural gas, oil and coal importers, as well as methane-intensity reporting requirements for both importers and European Union producers, it said.
‘This one-year postponement of the import-related provisions is designed to help avoid additional pressures on the security of supply of imported fossil fuels in the current geopolitical context,’ stated the EC.
The proposed targeted amendment will now be submitted to the European Parliament and Council for adoption.
However, the US at least was not mollified and reported that two other supplier countries have joined its campaign against the regulation.
It said: ‘In 2025, Kazakhstan, the United States, Nigeria and Guyana together accounted for roughly 37% of EU crude-oil imports by volume, while Algeria, Qatar, Nigeria and the United States were collectively responsible for approximately nearly 50% of EU natural gas imports, including LNG. These figures underscore the importance of ensuring that the EUMR strengthens methane performance without inadvertently restricting access to diverse sources of energy.’
Meanwhile, Texas-based Cheniere Energy has signed a deal to supply 4mn t/y of LNG to QatarEnergy from the early 2030s through 2054. The company signed a similar deal for 0.8mn t/y of LNG to Petrobras of Brazil in September.
Cheniere marked the substantial completion of the seven-train CCL 3 expansion of its subsidiary Corpus Christi Liquefaction in August. The project expanded Cheniere’s LNG production capacity by over 20%, to approximately 56mn t/y. A planned expansion of the Sabine Pass liquefaction project would see the addition of another 6mn t/y in the first phase, if an investment decision is made.
