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IEA predicts diesel shortage could worsen
20/10/2026
News
Current shortages of diesel fuel have been running counter to prevailing crude oil trends and may get worse over the coming weeks, according to the October Oil market report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), partly because of rising crude freight costs.
Although crude oil supply in the Middle East recovered in September to near pre-war levels thanks to increased shipping through the Gulf of Hormuz, high prices and low economic growth have reduced the flow of diesel to consumers, the report authors say. Supply was 28.7mn b/d in 3Q2026, down 750,000b/d compared with the same period last year. It predicts the market shrinkage will increase to 1mn b/d in 4Q2026.
The report adds that combined net exports from the Middle East and Russia dropped by 1.3mn b/d to 820,000b/d in September, down more than 60% year on year. In 1Q2027 the market is predicted to return to surplus, although it will take months to clear existing backlogs. The authors warn that this depends on restoring product supply from the Middle East.
Stored supplies have also been in the news. While Russian stocks have been held back by sanctions, US President Donald Trump has reportedly arranged for Russia to immediately export 2.24mn b of diesel to international markets, followed by 3.73mn b in November, then 7.45mn b, and 22.4mn b later.
On 15 October, the IEA reported that 330mn b of strategic stocks had been released since the March 2026 collective action began, with 100mn b remaining, including 20mn b of diesel ‘as soon as possible’.
The US government has paused collection of federal tax on diesel by allowing agricultural supplies, which are dyed red as in the UK, to be used for road-going vehicles until the end of the year.
