Floating offshore wind has already set a new annual deployment record for 2026, with 109MW fully operational so far this year, according to energy trade body RenewableUK. This total is just above the 108MW brought online during the whole of 2023.

Norway now has the most floating wind capacity in operation, followed by France. The UK ranks third with 78MW, but RenewableUK forecasts the UK could account for around 85% of Europe’s total by the mid-2030s.

Over the past 12 months, operational capacity has increased from 277MW to 382MW, a rise of 38%. Even so, this remains a fraction of the 152GW pipeline tracked by RenewableUK across 26 countries. Most of that pipeline remains in development.

By the end of 2030, RenewableUK expects 1.7GW to be operating worldwide. China is forecast to account for 66% and the UK 16%, with South Korea the only other market expected to achieve significant deployment.

Large development pipelines do not necessarily lead to construction. Despite the scale of Italy’s plans, it has no operational floating wind farms and none being built. Political uncertainty has also cast doubt over the US pipeline.

RenewableUK considers the UK’s 28.4GW pipeline more credible than many other countries’ because projects have seabed leases and are entering planning. The UK also has an established contracts for difference (CfD) price-support scheme. Projects totalling 592.5MW have secured contracts through it, giving their developers long-term revenue certainty.

Around 23GW (81%) of the UK pipeline is planned for Scottish waters. Local ports and suppliers still need to know when projects will start construction before investing in facilities and recruiting skilled workers.

ScotWind projects were awarded seabed rights in 2022, followed by the Innovation and Targeted Oil and Gas (INTOG) licensing round selections in March 2023. The resulting pipeline has helped prompt investment at ports including Ardersier (Inverness), Montrose, Kishorn (Strathcarron) and Leith (Edinburgh). Crown Estate Scotland estimates that the 10 floating projects awarded through ScotWind could spend £18.4bn in the Scottish supply chain over their lifetimes, rising to £25.9bn across the UK.

However, that investment is far from guaranteed. Developers are dealing with higher costs and uncertainty over future grid connections. Scottish Renewables says transmission charges in northern Scotland are expected to double by 2030 and cites £2.9bn of unforeseen costs since 2015. The trade body says developers must factor that risk into their bids or think twice about building.

Eight projects totalling nearly 14GW are at the planning stage, while three more have secured consent. Scottish Renewables says the country could lose its first-mover advantage, however, if uncertainty over project schedules and grid connections discourages firms from investing.

Delays would also affect businesses preparing to serve the sector. Specialist suppliers and workers cannot wait indefinitely for orders, while ports need confidence that one project will be followed by another. Scottish Renewables warns that expertise and future investment could move elsewhere if decisions take too long.

Reducing costs will also be key to turning planned projects into operating wind farms. A study by UK offshore renewables research centre ORE Catapult identifies cheaper finance and greater standardisation among the main opportunities.

ORE Catapult modelled seven representative 900MW wind farms in UK waters, each using 15MW turbines. Researchers then examined 21 ways to reduce costs, highlighting the following areas as particularly important:

• Cheaper finance. The cost of capital reflects borrowing costs and the returns expected by investors. If it fell to the level seen in fixed-bottom offshore wind, the cost of electricity from floating projects could fall by almost 20%. Greater certainty over future projects and revenue support would help reduce the risk perceived by investors.
• Standardised foundations. The industry currently has more than 100 floating foundation designs. Standardisation and optimisation, including using fewer foundation designs, could cut the cost of electricity by about 17% on average.
• Building more projects. Installation and maintenance should become cheaper as the industry gains experience. Each wind farm would also provide investors with better evidence about performance and risk, while regular orders would give ports and suppliers greater confidence to invest.

ORE Catapult will use the findings of its research to develop a monitoring framework that tracks whether electricity costs fall as more floating wind farms are built.

Floating wind’s record year shows more turbines are entering service, but operating capacity remains far smaller than the global development pipeline suggests. Scotland’s planned projects and offshore expertise give it a strong base as the sector expands, but the immediate test is whether enough of those projects reach construction to establish a lasting domestic industry and bring costs down.