New research from Wood Mackenzie concludes that Southeast Asia’s gas-fired power pipeline is increasingly constrained, as project delivery struggles to keep pace with government ambitions.

Across six major regional power markets, governments are targeting approximately 53GW of new gas-fired capacity by 2030. Wood Mackenzie, however, expects only 14.9GW to reach commercial operation this decade, as volatile fuel costs, equipment shortages, financing constraints and infrastructure bottlenecks delay project development.  

‘The challenge today is not planning power projects but executing them. New gas-fired capacity depends on several critical enablers, including LNG infrastructure, project financing and turbine availability. A bottleneck in any one of these areas can delay an entire project,’ commented Alvin Tan, a Southeast Asia power and renewables research analyst at Wood Mackenzie.  

The report further suggests that only 11GW of the planned gas-to-power project pipeline has secured gas turbines. Projects yet to lock in turbine supply are likely to face delivery lead times of at least five years.  

Electricity demand in Southeast Asia is projected to grow 2.4-fold by 2050, outpacing China, Australia and South Korea. This growth is being driven by industrial expansion, the China+1 manufacturing shift (where companies diversify production beyond China and into other Asia markets) and rising investment in semiconductors, electronics and hyperscale data centres. Wood Mackenzie expects gas demand from the power sector to more than double between 2026 and 2050, accounting for over one-quarter of regional electricity generation by mid-century.  

The region is also expected to become a net gas importer by 2033, with LNG projected to supply more than 80% of regional gas demand by 2050. However, delivering planned gas capacity is becoming increasingly challenging, the researchers contend. While gas turbine shortages are the most visible constraint, project timelines are also being affected by fuel availability, LNG infrastructure, financing, permitting and equipment procurement.  

‘Gas was once seen as a key enabler of Southeast Asia’s energy transition, capable of meeting rising electricity demand, supporting the integration of renewable energy, and, most importantly, maintaining energy security. Today, that assumption is being challenged. As gas project delays mount and supply chains tighten, policymakers are being forced to rethink not only the role of gas in the near term, but also the long-term pathways to achieving their energy transition goals,’ noted Wei Han Tan, Southeast Asia power and renewables research analyst at Wood Mackenzie.  

Vietnam: the largest delivery gap  

Vietnam faces the region’s widest gap between ambition and delivery. While the government targets 29.4GW of new gas-fired capacity by 2030, Wood Mackenzie expects only 3.7GW to come online. Early LNG-to-power projects have exposed commercial challenges around fuel pricing and cost allocation, while uncertainty over domestic gas supply and project timing continues to delay progress.  

Malaysia: extending existing capacity  

Peninsular Malaysia is managing near-term execution risk by extending nearly 5GW of existing gas-fired capacity through 2030, providing a temporary bridge while new projects advance. Wood Mackenzie forecasts 5.9GW of new capacity additions against a requirement of around 9.4GW, highlighting the continued need for new-build gas capacity to meet demand and maintain system reliability. Meanwhile, the government is exploring the repurposing of retiring coal plants into renewable energy hubs.  

Indonesia: equipment constraints slow progress  

Indonesia has secured turbine supply for only 200MW of its planned 8.4GW gas capacity project pipeline – the lowest proportion among the markets analysed. While abundant domestic coal reduces near-term reliability risks, it may also slow decarbonisation efforts. As a result, the country is placing greater emphasis on accelerating solar deployment alongside selective gas development.  

Singapore: best positioned, but not immune  

Singapore remains the region’s strongest performer on project execution, with turbine supply secured for all major projects expected before 2030. However, its next procurement round for 1.8GW of hydrogen-ready generation capacity will test whether even well-prepared markets can continue to navigate tightening global equipment supply.  

Philippines: delivery delays threaten reliability  

The Philippines faces immediate supply adequacy challenges, highlighted by simultaneous red alerts across the Luzon and Visayas grids in May 2026. Wood Mackenzie forecasts only 0.4GW of new gas capacity against a government target of around 2GW by 2030. In addition to project delays, fragmented responsibility for long-term resource planning remains a key structural challenge.  

Thailand: managing surplus capacity  

Thailand’s challenge is managing an oversupplied power system. Draft PDP2024, Thailand’s proposed power development plan, targets 1.4GW of new gas capacity by 2030, while Wood Mackenzie expects only 0.5GW to be delivered. The central issue is how policymakers address surplus generation capacity locked into long-term power purchase agreements while advancing the country’s energy transition.