The report emphasises the potential resilience of future renewable energy systems compared with the expected performance of fossil fuel-based infrastructure that continues to dominate the region’s electricity supply.

Solar, wind and battery storage, paired with stronger grid interconnection, can isolate damage when disaster strikes and recover faster than fossil fuel plants, while also losing far less output from long-term climate stress, Ember says.

Currently, around 64% of installed power capacity across the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region still comes from fossil fuels, which the report authors contend leave grids exposed to disruption in one of the most disaster-prone regions in the world. They say that even under the most extreme weather scenarios in 2030, wind and solar generation will vary by less than 1% from normal output, far less than the losses thermal and nuclear plants will face even under milder warming conditions.

‘ASEAN has witnessed a sweeping account of natural disasters. Power system resilience is central to a supportive ecosystem to unlock the potential of the green economy,’ said Dinita Setyawati, Senior Energy Analyst, Asia at Ember. ‘Expanding renewable energy and strengthening grids are not technical afterthoughts. They are essential ideas that deserve a place at the centre of policymaking and decision-making across ASEAN.’

The report identifies two major risks facing the region’s power systems: chronic climate stress that gradually erodes the output of fossil fuel, hydro and renewable assets alike, and acute disaster shocks that can destroy generation and transmission infrastructure outright. Distributed renewable networks handle both threats better than centralised fossil fuel systems, because damage can be isolated and repaired without affecting the whole network.

Case studies across the region underline these advantages. In Indonesia’s Central Sulawesi, a 7.4-magnitude earthquake disabled the Panau coal plant in 2018 and forced the rehabilitation of 1,192 distribution units. The provincial energy plan still includes 2.25GW of additional coal capacity by 2030. Ember’s modelling suggests that 600MW of solar paired with 720MWh of battery storage could offset 250MW of that planned coal capacity, or 1.4TWh of coal generation, while also being faster to deploy and to repair after a disaster.

In the Philippines, the island province of Catanduanes has experienced repeated power outages after typhoons due to its isolated, diesel-dependent grid. A planned 58 megavolt-ampere interconnection with the island of Luzon is projected to supply up to 22% of the island’s electricity demand by 2030 and would support quicker recovery in emergency situations.

In Vietnam, limited grid flexibility and storage led to around 405GWh of solar curtailment in 2020, at an opportunity cost estimated to be roughly $26mn. The report finds that upgrading transmission infrastructure alongside smart grids and battery storage would allow the country to capture more of its solar potential while strengthening the grid’s ability to recover from disruption.

Ember emphasises that improving resilience requires a whole-system approach. This is marked by an integration of energy planning into regional disaster frameworks such as the ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response, and by investing in the interconnection, grid flexibility and storage needed for distributed renewables to function as one resilient network.