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The new LNG rules: UAE sets out its stall, while North America gains new Pacific exporter and Shell looks forward to good times ahead
14/7/2026
News
Three months after leaving the OPEC oil and gas cartel, one of the UAE's national oil companies ADNOC has set up a global marketing organisation for LNG; it has also announced its first deals. Meanwhile, on the other side of the world, a new LNG liquefaction terminal on the Pacific coast of Mexico ships its first cargo to Asia, and Shell makes some big predictions for the future of LNG.
In Abu Dhabi, the new organisation, Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM), combines marketing activities of ADNOC Gas and XRG, ADNOC's infrastructure investment arm. ADNOC Trading, based in Abu Dhabi, Singapore and Geneva, will continue to operate alongside ADGM, which will handle long-term LNG marketing. XRG is described as having a global LNG portfolio, and has supply hubs and offices in Abu Dhabi and London.
His Excellency Dr Sultan Al Jaber, ADNOC Managing Director and Group CEO, and XRG Executive Chairman, said: ‘With LNG demand set to grow substantially, the world will need reliable, responsible and trusted suppliers at scale. This world-class, integrated commercial LNG platform brings together the full strength of ADNOC’s marketing, trading and shipping capabilities to create a single global hub in Abu Dhabi. It marks a step-change in scale, flexibility and optionality of our LNG marketing and trading platform and will further position ADNOC to meet the world’s growing demand for energy.’
The combined organisation is targeting 47 million tonnes per year (mn t/y) of combined LNG by 2035, including the 9.6mn t/y Ruwais LNG project in Abu Dhabi expected to start up in 2028. That project will increase ADNOC Gas's production to 15mn t/y.
At that point, ADNOC Gas is expecting to be transferred ADNOC's 60% share of Ruwais LNG 'at cost' – estimated to be $5bn. According to a 2024 press release, other shareholders in the project are Mitsui & Co, Shell, BP and TotalEnergies, each with 10%.
In July, ADNOC signed a 15-year sales and purchase agreement with Inpex of Japan for 1mn t/y of LNG, primarily from Ruwais LNG.
In other news also in July, ADNOC and XRG signed a strategic collaboration agreement with Mitsui & Co of Japan, the Ruwais LNG investor of Japan, a country which is one of ADNOC's most important markets. The SCA establishes a framework for collaboration across multiple strategic areas, including crude oil market development and long-term supply, LNG sales and optimisation, sulfur procurement and logistics, and shipping solutions for LNG, ammonia, sulfur and other commodities.
Through XRG, ADNOC and Mitsui will also evaluate international investment opportunities across the energy value chain, alongside potential collaboration on lower-carbon fuels and chemicals, including methanol and other projects at TA'ZIZ.
In May, the TA’ZIZ Methanol Company, a joint venture between TA’ZIZ and Proman, announced financial close on $2bn of financing for the UAE’s first world scale methanol plant in Al Ruwais Industrial City, targeted for completion in 2028. Once operational, the plant will support the development of a domestic chemicals value chain.
Pacific exporter's first shipment
On Mexico's Pacific coast, TotalEnergies has shipped to Asia the first cargo from ECA LNG Phase 1, an LNG export terminal currently under commissioning, in Ensenada, Baja California. TotalEnergies, which holds a 16.6% stake in the project alongside operator Sempra Infrastructure, will offtake 1.7mn t/y of LNG for 20 years from the start of commercial operations.
The site, formerly an LNG receipt, storage and regasification terminal, is being augmented with natural gas liquefaction capabilities. The single-train phase 1 facility has a nameplate capacity of 3.25mn t/y, 2.5mn t/y of which has been covered by 20-year agreements with TotalEnergies and Mitsui. It is claimed to be the first such facility on Mexico's Pacific coast, and promises to reach Asian markets more quickly than existing facilities in the US Gulf of Mexico, which would have to transit through the Panama Canal.
The LNG is sourced from the Permian basin in Texas and New Mexico. A second liquefaction train is also planned at the site.
Justin Bird, CEO of Sempra Infrastructure, said: ‘At a time of increased uncertainty in the global LNG trade, we are excited to begin shipping a new and reliable source of natural gas from North America’s Pacific Coast to customers around the globe.’
Shell 2026 LNG Outlook
Shell reports that total LNG trade in 2026 could amount to the same as in 2025, 422mn t. That is despite the closure of the Strait of Hormuz which has locked in about a fifth of the world's monthly supply of LNG, assuming that shipping returns to normal in summer 2026. The ramp up of new liquefaction facilities in North America, improved performance at existing plants and slower Asian imports of LNG have partially offset the impact of reduced supply from the Middle East, it said.
Long-term supply accounted for two-thirds of LNG trade. It said that the conflict had bumped up the average price of LNG by a few dollars per million British thermal units (mn Btu). The average price that buyers paid for LNG in May was around $11–12/mn Btu, compared to $7–11 in January before the conflict began.
Shell's 2026 LNG Outlook forecasts 180mn t of new supply to enter the market by 2030.
South and Southeast Asia are forecast to account for 40% of LNG import by 2050. In Japan, datacentres are causing demand growth.
It estimates 200mn t/y of new LNG liquefaction capacity will be needed in addition to projects already under construction.
This year is the tenth LNG Outlook. Since 2017, global LNG trade has increased by around 60%, from 264mn to 422mn t.
