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Solar generation eases European gas price spike despite flexibility challenges
7/7/2026
News
The Title Transfer Facility, a virtual natural gas trading hub in the Netherlands, experienced a 60% increase in gas prices from February to March 2026 following the outbreak of war between the US and Iran. In contrast, average day-ahead wholesale electricity prices in the European Union fell by 9% during the same period. That disparity indicates that the fuel market shock did not directly influence electricity pricing as it often does in systems dependent on fossil fuels, according to new analysis from Eurelectric.
To explain this contrast, the industry association published figures in July 2026, based on data from its automated Electricity Data Assistant (ELDA) platform. It showed that seasonal weather changes and lower power demand caused the price divergence in late winter and early spring. At the same time, clean power production reduced the external financial impact of fuel costs on energy consumers, as homegrown infrastructure helped insulate the broader economy from volatile global commodity prices.
Reflecting on these outcomes, Kristian Ruby, Secretary General of Eurelectric, stated that local power production lessens dependence on imports. ‘Data trends from the first half of 2026 reveal what we’ve long been advocating for: replacing imported fossil fuels with homegrown clean and renewable electricity means an energy-independent Europe less exposed to crises.’
Driving this trend in May 2026, solar generation led the electricity mix across the 27 member states, accounting for almost 23% of total output. Solar output reached a record monthly high of 48TWh, equivalent to Hungary’s annual electricity demand. This record output helped moderate costs during peak hours and reduced reliance on thermal gas-fired plants when weather conditions were favourable.
However, electricity prices rose sharply during periods without sunlight. Below-average wind speeds and low water reservoir levels, along with nuclear reactor maintenance schedules in multiple countries, limited the availability of alternative clean power sources.
Consequently, in May and June 2026, electricity prices before 09.00 and after 18.00 averaged €122/MWh, up from €90/MWh during the same period in 2025. Daytime prices remained much lower, averaging around €56/MWh due to intense solar availability. As a result, gas generation rose by a mere 1% during sunny periods but increased by 15% outside of those hours when solar output was unavailable.
This growing divergence, Eurelectric reports, highlights a clear gap in system flexibility. Specifically, the grid lacks sufficient storage, demand response and cross-border interconnectors at the scale necessary to balance daily supply fluctuations. As solar output declines in the evening, power systems continue to rely on gas, tying consumer power costs to volatile fuel markets during morning and evening peaks. Parallel difficulties emerged in the Nordic region, where lower hydro volumes, weaker wind generation and infrastructure maintenance raised electricity prices well above levels recorded in 1H2025.
‘The challenge now lies in flexibility,’ Ruby said. He noted that infrastructure must be flexible enough to respond to changing weather conditions. ‘Even as Europe becomes less exposed to fossil fuel shocks, its power system remains vulnerable when weather conditions are unfavourable and flexible low-carbon capacity is insufficient.’
On a national level, Belgium provides a clear example of how cross-border infrastructure can strengthen security of supply when domestic assets face constraints, reports Eurelectric. With its entire nuclear fleet remaining unavailable from April-end-June due to maintenance, Belgian electricity generation fell by 23% year on year over the April-June period. Yet consumer demand increased by 7%, while net imports into the country increased by 150%. Cross-border interconnections, therefore, acted as an important source of flexibility. For example, Eurelectric data shows that this structural grid network allowed Belgium to draw on neighbouring regional generation sources to balance the system, maintaining security of supply despite a major loss of domestic generation capacity.
Looking ahead, Ruby stated that ongoing infrastructure investment is needed to stabilise prices throughout the entire year.
‘Investment in grids, storage, demand response and other low-carbon flexible capacity will be essential to manage periods of low wind, hydro or solar availability, strengthen security of supply and keep electricity prices under control’, he concluded.
