The EU is on course to fall at least 17.5mn t/y short of its 2030 carbon storage target, according to energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie. It says the different parts of the carbon capture value chain are not developing together, slowing the projects needed to meet the EU’s Net Zero Industry Act (NZIA) target of 50mn t/y of operational carbon storage capacity by 2030.

Wood Mackenzie’s analysis concludes that the EU is unlikely to achieve this target even if every storage project currently in advanced development proceeds as planned.  

No single part of the system can scale independently, says the market analyst. Storage developers require committed capture projects before investing, capture operators need transport infrastructure and storage agreements before making final investment decisions, while transport networks depend on sufficient CO₂ volumes to justify investment. Without progress across the whole system, individual projects risk stalling, it warns.

Wood Mackenzie notes that the NZIA aims to overcome the long-standing ‘chicken-and-egg’ challenge facing carbon capture and storage (CCS) by encouraging storage capacity ahead of demand. However, it says the policy has created a new challenge, with storage developers expected to commit investment before enough capture projects, transport infrastructure and commercial agreements are in place to support long-term deployment.

The scale of the challenge is reflected in the numbers. Less than 6% of the EU’s targeted storage capacity is currently operational or under construction, while only 4mn t/y of capture capacity has reached final investment decision and is contractually linked to storage. Meeting the 2030 target would require a fivefold increase in storage investment decisions between 2026 and 2028, suggests the market analyst.

Commercial conditions also remain challenging. Wood Mackenzie says that while the EU Emissions Trading System provides an incentive to reduce emissions, carbon prices remain below the cost of deploying CCS for many projects approaching final investment decision. Combined with split ownership, uncertain project economics and delays averaging around 1.5 years across EU storage projects, these factors leave an estimated 11mn t/y of planned capture capacity at risk of becoming stranded, it warns.

Despite these wider challenges, companies continue to invest in technologies designed to strengthen individual parts of the carbon capture system. One example is Air Liquide’s new industrial-scale carbon capture pilot at Holcim’s CaptureLab in France.

The pilot uses Air Liquide’s Cryocap FG technology, developed specifically for the cement industry. Cement production is among the hardest industrial sectors to decarbonise because many of its CO₂ emissions result from the production process itself rather than fuel combustion. Technologies capable of capturing these process emissions are expected to play an increasingly important role in reducing industrial emissions in the future.

Built using a modular design, the pilot plant pre-treats flue gas before CO₂ purification. It can be relocated to other industrial sites following its initial deployment, supporting wider deployment of the technology, according to Air Liquide.

Projects such as Air Liquide’s demonstrate continued progress in carbon capture technology. However, Wood Mackenzie concludes that meeting the EU’s carbon storage ambitions will depend on coordinated development across capture, transport and storage infrastructure rather than advances in any single part of the value chain. It suggests the EU’s ability to scale CCS will depend as much on linking capture, transport and storage through shared infrastructure and commercial agreements as on continued progress in capture technology itself.