Europe could need a dedicated fleet of 65 ships and 33 ports by 2050 to transport captured carbon from industrial sites to offshore storage locations beneath the seabed, according to analysis from Xodus. This is an increase from around 22 ships in 2030 and is based on an average cargo capacity of 15,000t per vessel. Volumes of captured carbon transported for storage across Europe are forecast to rise from around 70mn t/y in 2030 to 320mn t by 2050.

While pipelines are expected to play an increasingly important role as carbon capture networks expand, the report says shipping will remain a significant part of the market.

Shipping’s share of transported volumes is forecast to fall from 48% to 24% between 2030 and 2050, but the volume of CO₂ carried by ship is still expected to more than double to 79mn t/y.

Ships are more flexible than pipelines, allowing captured emissions from multiple industrial sites to be gathered and transported to storage locations across Europe.

The Xodus analysis identifies the North Sea as the likely centre of Europe’s carbon storage industry, with the UK, Norway and the Netherlands expected to receive growing volumes of captured carbon from elsewhere on the continent.

A separate Xodus report forecasts that the Asia-Pacific region will become the world’s largest market for transporting captured carbon by sea. By 2055, the region could require more than 90 storage sites, almost 8,000km of pipelines and around 80 specialist carbon transport ships to support planned carbon storage activity.

Unlike Europe, where many industrial centres are relatively close to potential storage locations, parts of the Asia-Pacific face much greater distances between emitters and suitable geological storage sites. In some cases, those distances exceed 5,000km.

Japan and South Korea are expected to be among the largest sources of demand for carbon storage services despite having limited domestic storage options. The Xodus report forecasts growing demand for cross-border carbon transport and offshore storage infrastructure.

Simon Allison, Vice President APAC at Xodus, said the region was well placed for large-scale CCUS deployment: ‘While APAC [Asia-Pacific] currently trails areas like the North Sea in terms of deploying commercial-scale CCUS [carbon capture, use and storage] to serve industrial emitters, its large emissions footprint and operational experience in CO₂ re-injection positions it to become a global hub for CCUS development in the decades ahead.’

The studies indicate that transporting captured carbon may become a major new shipping market, requiring fleets of dedicated vessels alongside new ports, pipelines and storage sites.